2023-05-23 16:00:00
As the short week goes by before the holiday of next May 25 and the bridge of Friday the 26th in which there will be no markets operating, the parallel dollar increased once more to $494 at noon in the city of Buenos Aires, for later drop $2 and settle at $492. It is worth remembering that yesterday May 22, the blue increased four pesos compared to the previous closure.
With these quotes, the free dollar marks an increase of $148 since the start of the year. For its part, the official dollar operates at $233.50 for purchases and $243.50 for sales. Meanwhile, the purchase through the MEP is listed at $466.68 and the value of the CCL (counted with liquidation) is $478.92
In addition, the wholesale dollar trades at $234.55 for purchase and $234.95 for sale and the Qatar Dollar: $490.04
The soybean dollar was halfway to five days to finish
The market awaits with attention what the intervention ofl Banco Central with the “blue” approaching $500, although given the issuance and the increase in public spending It is a level that will reach in the short term.
“Under our analysis, the rise of the blue dollar corresponds to the trend we have been observing in recent months. If we start from the basis that monthly inflation is 8.8%, we can infer that, in general, goods and services are increasing that percentage“, Nicolás Olive from Rudolph’s research team pointed out to PROFILE.
“If we transfer this to the dollar, it is estimated that it should rise around 2/3 pesos per day. However, there are days when it will rise more and others when it will rise less. When measures are announced, the market is usually more expectantbut when they disappoint the market, generally the free dollar is the first to feel those flows“, said Olive, referring to the measures announced by Economy in the last hours with the aim of encouraging consumption.
He added: “This is because it is where anyone seeks refugewhether you are a housewife, a small and medium business or an entrepreneur”.
Other factors that advance the dollarization of portfolios
Currently, there are a number of factors that are driving the dollarization of investors’ portfolios. Among them, the most notable is the implementation of measures aimed at promoting consumption, such as the reduction of financing costs in credit cards and the increase in purchase limits in installments or in cash using cards, said the economist Natalia Butterfly in statements to PROFILE.
“In an inflationary context, one would expect that the policies aim to cool the economyto. Likewise, a rise in rates that affects the productive structure only anticipates a context in which supply contracts and demand riseswhich would put upward pressure on the general price level,” added the analyst.
Blue dollar today: minute by minute of the price of this Friday, May 19, 2023
Lack of access to needed dollars to support weight is also an influential factor in this situation. According to Motyl’s words, aCurrently, Sergio Massa, who is facing difficulties in obtaining the dollar funds he needs, finds himself limited in his possibilities.
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) would only allow access to US$2,000 million to intervene in the exchange market. This amount is insufficient, considering that the market already anticipates an inevitable correction in the value of the dollar“warned the economist.
Drought adds
Soybean production 2022/23 fell by 50% compared to what was estimated at the beginning of the sowing and maize registered a drop of 40%. This anticipates that much fewer dollars will enter than initially expected. “This anticipates that much less dollars will come in than was initially expected,” Motyl added.
Dollar today: an expert explains the risks of the new loop with financial dollars
Lastly, the economist warned that the price of the parallel dollar is also boosted by a maturity in dollars for July of regarding US$1,000 million which generates nervousness before a Central Bank that today has no reserves.
“The risk that Argentina cannot meet its commitments increases. Finally, a hypothetical value analyzing reserves over BCRA liabilities indicates that today the dollar should be around $520. All these factors put pressure on the foreign exchange marketMotyl concluded.
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