2023-05-15 21:28:09
researchers of the NOAA of the United States warned that this year it is almost guaranteed that there will be a El Niño Phenomenon “significant” that might extend until 2024.
The last time it was recorded, in 2019, El Niño lasted six months and was particularly weak, considering that it usually lasts between nine months and two years. La Niña’s lasted three years, and ended in March of this year. We are currently in a neutral period, between both phenomena.
According to atmospheric measurements, the probability that El Niño will arrive this year is 90%, causing warming in the currents of the Pacific Ocean, and thereby triggering significant changes in climates around the world, an effect increased by climate change.
This is how he reported it LiveSciencedetailing that specialists estimate that there is a 60% probability that it will begin between May and July.
A Strong Child Phenomenon
“Keep your eyes on the tropics, and don’t blink,” said NOAA Fluid Dynamics Laboratory meteorologist Nathaniel Johnson. “Conditions are rapidly evolving!”
Thus, they anticipate with 80% certainty that this year’s El Niño will be of moderate strength or greater, with the temperature of the sea surface rising 1º Celsius, and a 55% probability that it will be strong in magnitude, with an increase of 1.5ª Celsius.
Traditionally, El Niño and La Niña occurred every two to seven years, but recently the cycle has become more erratic due to climate change.
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