Turkish Elections 2023: Impact of Muharrem Ince’s Withdrawal on the Presidential Race

2023-05-12 08:54:00

• VonBedrettin Bölükbaşı

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Shortly before the Turkish elections on May 14, candidate Muharrem Ince surprisingly withdrew from the race. That should shake up the overall picture tremendously.

Frankfurt – Shortly before the 2023 Turkish elections on Sunday (May 14), Memleket (Fatherland Party) leader Muharrem Ince withdrew his candidacy. He was seen as an alternative to opposition candidate and CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. There is now a debate going on in Turkey regarding how this development will affect the election and whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will benefit from it.

Türkiye election 2023: Ince withdraws his candidacy

“I am withdrawing my candidacy,” Ince told the Memleket party headquarters on Thursday (May 11). Previously, he had to postpone several campaign appearances due to health problems. Criticism of the opposition under Kilicdaroglu might be heard in his statements. According to Ince, he was accused of being paid by Erdogan. “They said I would do my job, was paid by the palace and therefore might not withdraw from the race,” said the former CHP politician.

“Now I want to address those who have expressed this infamy,” Ince said, announcing his retirement from the race. His next words regarding the opposition under Kilicdaroglu were tough: “After they lose the election, they will blame us, now we will take away their pretexts (for the defeat, editor’s note) away.”

Election campaign in Turkey: Erdoğan vs. Kılıçdaroğlu – the duel for the presidency

Continue with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or rather with challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu? The presidential elections in Turkey on Sunday, May 14, 2023 will decide who will govern the country on the Bosphorus and its 85 million inhabitants in the future. The election campaign has long been raging across the country, including here in the metropolis of Istanbul. © Emrah Gurel/dpa

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s supporters are hoping for a change in leadership of Turkey following almost 20 years with Erdogan. The polls ahead of Turkey’s elections point to a change. Depending on the polling institute, CHP candidate Kılıçdaroğlu is either ahead of Erdogan or just behind him. The optimism of the opposition is correspondingly high, as here in Kocaeli, where Kılıçdaroğlu promises his listeners the “return of the political spring”. © YASIN AKGUL/AFP

Will he really be Turkey’s next president? Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has been chairman of the social democratic CHP, the largest opposition faction in the Turkish parliament, since 2010. The graduate economist is considered a financial expert. He has been married since 1974 and comes from an Alevi family. The polls speak for Erdogan’s challenger. © Uncredited/dpa

But poor poll numbers seem unable to discourage either President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or the supporters of his ruling AKP. Turkey’s ruler continues to appear self-confident and speaks to his fans, as here in Istanbul, of nothing more than a historic victory over Kılıçdaroğlu and his opposition alliance. © IMAGO/AK Party Office apaimages

Election campaign in Turkey: millions of people cheer Erdogan in Istanbul

According to his own statements, Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently gathered 1.5 million people for an election campaign event in Stanbul alone. The resulting impressive images are a clear signal to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his opposition alliance: the AKP is far from being defeated. Erdogan remains a confident incumbent. © afp

Putin visits Erdogan in Turkey

As incumbent President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not above making full use of his incumbent bonus in the run-up to the election. An old ally is apparently also happy to help him: Vladimir Putin, here during a visit to Ankara, the capital of Turkey in 2022. In the election year, Erdoğan presented himself several times as a mediator in the Ukraine war – so far without any significant success. © MURAT KULA/AFP

Ekrem İmamoğlu with his wife during Türkiye’s election campaign in Istanbul.

But the election campaign in Turkey is not always peaceful. Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, like presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu a member of the CHP, had to experience this. The mayor, pictured here with his wife Dilek İmamoğlu, was attacked with stones at a campaign rally in the city of Erzurum. İmamoğlu had to stop the performance and flee. The province of Erzurum in eastern Anatolia is considered the stronghold of Erdogan and his national conservative AKP. © IMAGO/Tunahan Turhan

Grocery store in Turkey just before the presidential election

In addition to the earthquake, the country’s economic situation is the dominant issue in Turkey’s election campaign. The inflation rate has reached astronomical heights, the value of the Turkish lira is in free fall. Although the AKP government was recently able to lower the inflation rate once more, it is still above 50 percent. Experts also consider Erdogan’s policies to be responsible for Turkey’s economic problems. © ADEM ALTAN/AFP

Earthquake disaster in Turkey in the city of Antakya

Shortly before the election, Turkey was hit by one of the worst natural disasters in recent memory. An earthquake on February 6 killed more than 50 people in Turkey. After the earthquake, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP government also came under criticism. In the years leading up to the disaster, the president had softened numerous building codes that would have made buildings earthquake-proof and diverted funds earmarked for disaster relief elsewhere. © Boris Roessler/dpa

Ataturk banner ahead of Turkey’s elections.

But not only the president is elected in Turkey. The new members of the Turkish parliament, which has 600 members, will also be decided on May 14, 2023. During his tenure, Recep Tayyip Erdogan weakened the powers of parliament in favor of the president. Kemal Kilicdaroglu has promised to reverse these changes if he wins the elections, thereby protecting Turkey’s republic, once founded by the country’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, from autocratic machinations. © Francisco Seco/dpa

Turkey election 2023: Decision in the first round following Ince’s withdrawal?

Now there is speculation as to whether voters will turn to Ince Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu. Memleket supporters are divided on social media. Ince’s withdrawal also increases the probability that the election will be decided in the first round. Should the fourth candidate Sinan Ogan withdraw as well, this would be secured. “According to my information, Mr. Ogan might also resign,” said Turkish journalist Ismail Saymaz from the opposition channel Halk TV shortly following Ince’s statement. (bb)

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