“Expert Insights: Gas and Oil Prices Update and Forecast for Winter 2022”

2023-05-12 04:48:00

For Damien Ernst, energy expert and professor at the University of Liège, we can breathe a good blow, even if the situation remains tense at the geopolitical level. “We can say that the crisis is over for the moment, yes, he says. But beware, there are always risks that prices will go up. When we look at the forecasts for the start of winter, we see that the announced prices are around 50 to 60 euros per megawatt hour. This does not mean that we will necessarily be there, but that the tension remains on the markets in view of the winter months.

Politics will decide what happens next…

Prices might therefore rise in a few months, and the situation on the Ukrainian front will remain important to monitor. “What we fear the most for the gas market are attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. There have already been some on smaller refineries. If it intensifies, it might limit Russian gas exports – which are still substantial – and increase the price of both gas and oil.”

According to him, the risk is very real. “This has already happened with Nord Stream 1 and 2 in August 2022, he recalls. We are therefore in the realm of reality and not just speculation. But I’m not a diviner either, I don’t know what’s going to happen either. We therefore have to keep an eye on all this, but things have been looking pretty good on the markets for many weeks now. Politics will decide what happens next…”

Oil also down

And in addition to the fall in the price of gas – which largely influences electricity prices – we can also note a bearish phase in the oil market. The price per barrel went from almost 90 euros in mid-April to just over 70 euros last week. “We can talk regarding a big crashlance Damien Ernest. The barrel fell sharply in a few days, despite decisions taken by OPEC to raise prices. The news is therefore good for consumers.”

Good news, of course, but what regarding practice? The expert gives us some advice. “We can return to fixed contracts, it becomes interesting once more. It’s a little more expensive than variable contracts, but you can ensure security for at least a year. In addition, we can easily get out of it if prices were to drop sharply once more. In fact, you risk paying more in the summer by taking a fixed contract now, but saving money in the winter, if we follow current market forecasts.”

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