2023-05-02 16:15:05
In recent weeks, Ukraine has launched multiple offensives on the southern front, bombing the oil depot in the port of Sevastopol, using unmanned boats to surprise the port, and trying to cross the Dnieper River and establish a bridgehead opposite the city of Kherson.
On April 29, Ukraine dispatched drones to attack the oil depot in the port of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula. We can see the raging fire, the flames soaring into the sky, the entire oil depot has been burned to the ground, and the resulting mushroom cloud fills the sky . Ukraine is attacking not only from the air, but also from the sea.
In the early hours of April 24, the mayor of Sevastopol announced that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had repelled the attack by Ukrainian surface unmanned boats on the Sevastopol military port.
Ukraine used unmanned boats to attack the Black Sea Fleet station at night in October last year, injuring several Russian warships. After that, the Russian Black Sea Fleet reduced the number of dispatched missions and deployed multiple lines of defense outside the port of Sevastopol. According to the analysis of the famous military expert Sutton, Russia has deployed a total of six defense lines in front of the entire Sevastopol port, consisting of various obstacles and protective nets.
On the other hand, Ukraine has also updated its own suicide unmanned boats. The first generation of unmanned boats was mainly used last year, while the second generation of unmanned boats appeared this year. The entire speedboat is streamlined, and from the surface it seems that many sensors are placed inside.
This is a video that was circulated on the Internet on the day of the explosion. A violent explosion can be heard, but it did not cause too much damage to the Russian warships in the port.
In addition to attacking the port of Sevastopol, Ukraine has focused on crossing the Dnieper River for some time in the past.
Ukraine crosses the Dnieper
In the video, the broad Dnieper River is on the other side of Kherson, a big city in Ukraine. A speedboat is driving on the river and docked on the bank. Ukrainian armed personnel cross the Dnieper River and enter residential areas. Then we see flashes of fire as Russian artillery shells possible hiding places for Ukrainian soldiers.
This scene happened on April 23, in the small town of Daqi on the other side of the Dnieper River in Kherson. In fact, earlier, there have been videos. The Ukrainian army crossed the Dnieper River and established a bridgehead on the opposite bank, or fire reconnaissance. This video appeared on April 18. We can see that a small boat has arrived at the pier, and several Ukrainian soldiers have landed and entered the village.
Ukraine’s crossing of the Dnieper River has not been hindered by Russia much on land. Russia uses artillery more for long-range strikes. So why did Russia allow Ukraine to cross the Dnieper River, and what actions will Ukraine take following crossing the Dnieper River?
To understand the situation on the Dnieper River, it is first necessary to understand the geography of the Dnieper River. From the map, the Dnieper River is at the mouth of the sea. It is not just a river, it forms multiple tributaries. The tributaries meet, forming small islands and sandbars in the middle. From the map, on the south bank of the Dnieper River, the city of Olesk guarded by Russia, all the way to Kherson, there are at least two rivers in the middle, and lakes of different sizes. This area is uninhabited, and there is only a small village like Daqi near the Dnieper River.
We can better understand the situation at the mouth of the Dnieper River by watching this video. This video is a video of Russian artillery units shelling Ukrainian soldiers. We can see that there are sandbars formed by small islands everywhere, and the river passes through them. , the entire area is no man’s land, and part of the land on the sandbar is covered by trees.
In such an area, first, you cannot dig trenches and set up defense lines, and your army will be exposed to enemy artillery. Second, there are rivers and sandbars blocking you and yourself behind, and transportation of supplies is also a problem. Therefore, on these sandbars around the Dnieper River, Russia did not deploy defense lines.
And if you want to understand the specific situation of the Russian defense line, please see this picture. The picture shows Russia’s defense line throughout Kherson in May 2022.
The northernmost red line was the battle line between Russia and Ukraine at that time, which no longer exists. Further south we can see the blue river. When the Dnieper River is close to Kherson, it has divided into many tributaries, covering a considerable area. The Russian defense line is not deployed close to the Dnieper River. The second purple-yellow line is some distance away from the Dnieper River. After the second yellow line is the third yellow line of defense and the fourth green line of defense.
At that time, Russia transported a large number of cement boxes to the front line and dug trenches to build these three lines of defense. And these sandbars on the other side of the Dnieper River are not within Russia’s defense line. In other words, this area is a gray area that is neither controlled by Ukraine nor Russia. Ukraine also knows that Russia has not deployed troops here, and the landing here is mainly for reconnaissance and testing.
no progress following crossing the river
From the perspective of military deployment, there is no problem with Russia’s defenses, and the sandbars near the Dnieper River are not suitable for defense. Even if the Ukrainian army arrives here, it will not be able to establish a solid line of defense, but will be exposed to Russian artillery fire. This is why it has been two weeks since Ukraine crossed the Dnieper River. Too many hand to hand battles on land. And Ukraine has made no push forward.
Even if Ukraine can successfully control the village of Daqi, it will be a very big problem to advance to Oleski. From the map, there is a river called Konka in front of Oleski. Between this river and Daqi, it is an uninhabited area, which is completely composed of lakes, swamps and rivers. Heavy equipment in such areas For example, it is difficult for tanks to move, relying solely on infantry and light combat vehicles, it is very difficult to pass through this area with a length of 4 kilometers. And because this area belongs to the river beach area, you can’t dig trenches to build fortifications. In addition, this area is relatively open, with fewer trees and no shelter, which means that Ukraine’s offensive forces will be almost completely exposed to Russian firepower.
Although Russia lacks precision strike capabilities, it may not be easy for Ukraine’s light forces to pass through these 4 kilometers.
In fact, similar news came out as early as last year regarding the battle at the mouth of the Dnieper River in the Kherson area. At that time, the Ukrainian offensive troops tentatively landed on the Jinben Sand Spit, but there was no follow-up to this incident. The fundamental reason is that an area full of muddy wetlands and rivers like the mouth of the Dnieper River is extremely unfavorable to the attacker, especially if you have to attack across the river.
Combining the above analysis, I think it is not very likely that Ukraine will launch a major counter-offensive across the Dnieper River in Kherson. Of course, this is just my personal judgment. If Ukraine really succeeds in breaking through from here, I will gladly accept it and punish myself with three cups.
Feint Kherson
So why has Ukraine continued to have military operations in Kherson State recently?
This may be a false attack by Ukraine. The main direction of the Ukrainian counterattack is likely to be in Zaporozhye. These Russian defenders, from Novokakhovka all the way to the mouth of the Dnieper River, will have to retreat back to Crimea.
Russia is naturally aware of such a strategic weakness. In the past period of time, Russia has been setting up multiple lines of defense in the direction of Zaporozhye, especially wary of the Ukrainian team. Ukraine continues to test Russia in the direction of Kherson. If some Russian troops can be diverted from the direction of Zaporizhia to Kherson, it will be helpful for Ukraine’s major counterattack in the future.
The big counterattack is just around the corner
At the same time, Ukraine is practicing more than a dozen newly trained combat units. The video we are seeing now shows that Ukraine is using aided tanks to conduct exercises on the battlefield. This unit is Ukraine’s elite First Tank Brigade, which was responsible for guarding the Ukrainian border city of Chernihiv in the early days of the Ukrainian war, which is only 20 kilometers away from the border. At that time, the Russian army surrounded the city and might not conquer the city until the day of retreat. The 1st Tank Brigade made a great contribution.
And at the moment when the fierce battle in Bakhmut is in full swing, as Ukraine’s elite first tank brigade, recharging its energy in the rear is preparing for the final big counteroffensive. It can be seen that the troops mobilized by Ukraine for this major counteroffensive are likely to be no less than 20 brigades. According to NATO standards, 9 brigades were established first, and the Ministry of the Interior established 8 new brigades. There are also some elite troops resting in the rear. Close to the strength of 20 brigades, Ukraine is seizing the time to prepare for the final counteroffensive. On April 28, the Ukrainian Defense Minister said that Ukraine was ready to counterattack and was just waiting for the weather to improve and the order of the Supreme Command.
From the video from the front, it can be seen that in late April and early May, Ukrainian mud generals were still alive, and the muddy land in eastern Ukraine was not suitable for attacking. However, as the weather gets warmer, General Mu will soon cease to exist. With NATO weapons and equipment and newly trained troops in place, Ukraine’s major counterattack is just around the corner.
Meanwhile, the Bakhmut battle continued. The video we are seeing now is the situation of the 93rd Brigade reinforcing Bakhmut. The Wagner Legion currently attacking Bakhmut is exhausted. Although it controls most of the city of Bakhmut, the area west of Bakhmut is still in the hands of Ukraine. The urban areas continue to consume Russia’s vital forces.
A lot of conflicts have erupted in Russia. Prigozin, the owner of Wagner, said recently that he asked the Ministry of Defense to provide enough ammunition. Replenish ammunition immediately, or you may be defeated in battle, or even “non-existent” in the end.
During the Battle of Stalingrad during World War II, the Soviet army once controlled only 5% of the city of Stalin. However, it never gave up on Stalingrad, which caused heavy damage to the German offensive forces. Afterwards, the Soviet Union’s Neptune plan was successfully implemented and the offensive The forces of Stalingrad complete the encirclement.
This year, the focus of everyone’s discussion turned out to be Bakhmut, Ukraine’s 59th largest city with a population of less than 100,000. However, it took Russia 9 months to fully control such a city. What a difference from Kiev to Bakhmut, from which we can see that Russia’s offensive posture is getting smaller and smaller, and maybe by the second half of this year, people are talking regarding Crimea up.
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