2023-05-02 13:00:33
Wagner fell into isolation and helplessness once more so quickly, and might only wait for Putin to “grace”. (Cartooned by The Epoch Times)
[The Epoch Times, May 2, 2023]Ukraine’s latest round of offensive is ready to go. The strategic port city of Sevastopol in Crimea has impatiently used a violent explosion to turn the night into daylight. Then, Ukrainian drones ignited a Russian fuel depot, and the smoke that burned all day turned the day into darkness.
On April 29, a Ukrainian kamikaze drone attack torched several fuel storage tanks at a large fuel hub on the western end of Sevastopol, causing a fire of more than 1,000 square meters. Burnt oil tanks and pipes were left behind following fires swept through the complex in Kozacha Bay. It was the latest in a series of Ukrainian drone operations once morest Sevastopol. The operations date back to last summer’s attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF), which Ukrainian kamikaze ships also attacked in October. The video taken by the drone shows the damage to the fuel storage facility. Judging from the degree of damage, it is likely to affect the normal operation of the Russian military in the future.
A Ukrainian intelligence official claimed that the attack destroyed 10 oil storage tanks with a combined capacity of 40,000 tons of fuel intended for the Black Sea Fleet. He suggested the attack was in retaliation for a Russian missile attack on Uman on April 28. The attack highlighted the effectiveness of using low-cost drones for swarm attacks and underscored the need for the Russian military to have more air defenses to counter the saturation of Crimean skies by large drone swarms.
Regardless of the potential impact of the operation, no Russian military logistics officer wants to see so much fuel and infrastructure wiped out. The problem is not how much fuel is lost, but the ability of future Russian forces to retain large amounts of fuel is lost. Ukraine has solved this problem with a huge fleet of fuel trucks, because they have long known that fixed fuel storage locations are easily destroyed. So they spread the fuel across thousands of mobile fuel trucks.
With the latest major Ukrainian counteroffensive looming, any disruption to key storage locations such as fuel and ammunition might pose a real threat to Russian forces’ defense plans. The attack on the fuel depot is in line with Ukraine’s strategy of preparing its battle space before launching an offensive.
A post on the Telegram channel @Crimeanwind suggests that Russia’s troubles in Crimea may just be the beginning. Russia is trying to organize a larger ferry system in case the Kerch Strait Bridge is destroyed. A Ukrainian attack on the bridge last fall partially collapsed it, and Russia used ferries while it was being repaired.
The head of the Crimean Tatar parliament, Refat Chubarov, said that the Russians are urgently constructing a ferry between Crimea and Russian territory because they are aware of the high precision of the Kerch bridge and the Ukrainian armed forces. Vulnerable to ranged weapons. He released a screenshot of a Russian government website showing that the Russian government plans to allocate funds to arrange a ferry between the ports of Kerch and Kavkaz. He said the above-mentioned decision is a serious signal to the nearly one million Russian citizens who have settled in Crimea. “So, Russian citizens who imagine they can settle in stolen foreign territory, don’t count on ferries, there are only six ships, not even enough to evacuate all Russian occupying forces. When the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to liberate Ukraine The sooner you leave Crimea voluntarily, the more likely you are to avoid more trouble.”
The Ministry of Defense believes that another wave of Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukraine on April 29 is very different from the attacks this winter, involving fewer missiles and that the Russians did not target Ukrainian energy infrastructure as they did at the beginning of the year. Now they are trying to hit Ukrainian reserves and logistical supply lines. It is unclear whether these actions by the Russian military have achieved their goals. The Ministry of Defense pointed out that Russia’s targeting process was inefficient and did not take into account collateral damage. It is clear that in this round of strikes, more than 25 civilians were killed.
Russian forces fired 23 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles from Tu-95 bombers over the Caspian Sea. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated on the Telegram channel that our air defense forces destroyed 21 of these missiles, as well as two drones. The cities of Uman and Dnipro in Cherkasy Oblast and Uklenka in Kiev Oblast have all been hit by Russian rockets. More than 20 civilians were killed, including 3 children. More than 10 apartment buildings and other civilian facilities were damaged.
At present, the battlefield situation in Bachmut is increasingly unfavorable to the Wagner Group. Wagner Group boss Prigozin said that if the Russian military command cannot provide Wagner mercenaries with more ammunition, then Wagner troops will be withdrawn from Bahamut. In an April 29 interview with a Kremlin-affiliated military blog, Prigozin said Wagnerian mercenaries would continue to fight in Bakhmut, but if the situation did not improve immediately, they needed to retreat in an organized way, or stay die. Prigozin said Wagner needed regarding 80,000 shells a day before the Russian Ministry of Defense made apparent efforts to reduce Wagner’s influence. Wagner is currently requesting 4,000 shells a day, but can only receive 800.
Prigozin is also trying to persuade the Kremlin to go on the defensive in eastern Ukraine. It said the Ukrainian counteroffensive might happen before May 15, but the Russian army was not ready. He also mentioned that Wagner and Surovkin, the deputy commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, formulated a plan to “wear out” Ukrainian troops in an attempt to deprive Ukraine of the initiative on the battlefield.
The Institute of War Research believes that when Prigozin mentioned Surovkin, it is likely that he hoped to establish contact with Surovkin, because Surovkin may regain Putin’s attention. Moreover, Prigozin’s statement that the withdrawal from Bakhmut and that Wagner’s forces will cease to exist is likely to gain leverage, as Putin is reshuffling the Russian military leadership once more in a way that may favor Prigozin layer.
Former Russian commander Gilkin warned on April 29 that Russian President Vladimir Putin might face a military defection from the Wagner Group. Calling troops to withdraw from the front lines without the consent of the high command is military insurrection and nothing else, he wrote in a Telegram post.
Gilkin wrote: “Prigozin realized that a withdrawal might have disastrous consequences for Russia before a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Western countries, including the United States, have been supplying Ukrainian forces with advanced military equipment, tanks and artillery to help prepare Ukraine for an impending counteroffensive.”
In recent months, Russian commanders may have begun punishing troops for breaches of discipline by keeping them in underground makeshift cells covered with metal gratings, according to a memo released by British intelligence on April 30. These makeshift prisons are used to punish Russian soldiers who violate the rules, ranging from drinking to trying to leave the army.
The report pointed out that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the attitude of Russian commanders towards their subordinates has changed dramatically. In the early days, Russian commanders were more gentle in enforcing discipline, and even allowed those who did not want to be soldiers to go home quietly. This all began to change in the fall of 2022, when the Kremlin’s top military officials began imposing tougher penalties for violations among Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. Especially since the chief of the general staff, Gerasimov, took over as the operational commander, the situation has taken a sharp turn in a more severe direction.
Written by: Xia Luoshan (a reporter from The Epoch Times, who has experienced more than ten years of military life, mainly engaged in military teaching and some technical management work)
Production: Current Affairs Military Production Team
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