When will the 14-month trade deficit semiconductor recover?

2023-05-01 21:32:13

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As semiconductor exports halved, the decline in exports continued in April.

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The trade deficit has also continued for 14 months in a row, but the deficit is narrowing little by little.

This is Reporter Lim Hyun-joo.

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Last month, exports recorded $49.62 billion, down 14.2% from the same month a year ago.

Again, semiconductors caught on.

Only semiconductor exports fell by 41%, largely due to a decrease in price and demand at the same time.

Fortunately, exports of automobiles and ships have increased significantly.

In particular, as exports of high-priced eco-friendly cars increased, car exports exceeded $5.5 billion for three consecutive months.

Imports from energy such as crude oil decreased last month to $52.23 billion, down 13.3% from a year ago.

The trade balance recorded a deficit of $2.6 billion in April as imports exceeded exports.

It was the 14th consecutive month of deficit, the longest since May 1997 when it recorded a trade deficit of 17 months in a row.

Fortunately, the trade deficit has been improving since January.

[주원/현대경제연구원 경제연구실장]

″Imports are decreasing rather quickly, so the trade deficit will decrease and it is highly likely that it will return to surplus sooner or later. Exports still seem to be a bit uncertain.″

In order to break the chain of sluggish exports, the semiconductor industry must revive, and the industry expects Samsung Electronics’ participation in production cuts to reduce inventory and slow down the price decline from the second quarter.

Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce also predicted that the problem of oversupply of memory semiconductors would improve following the third quarter.

Here, the timing of China’s economic recovery is also a variable.

The government also said that it expects some semiconductor exports to recover in the second half.

This is Im Hyun-joo from MBC News.

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