2023-05-01 16:55:00
A “historic” May Day according to the unions who marched together for the first time since the financial crisis of 2009 and previously since the Liberation. A May 1st announcing the beginning of the exit from the social crisis, hopes the government which intends to resume the dialogue and move forward on its roadmap. A successful May 1 mobilization, despite school holidays and rain, with 2.3 million demonstrators in France according to the CGT, but only 782,000 including 112,000 in Paris according to the police.
“It’s a big May 1st. It’s not a last stand, it’s the challenge of the world of work, of this reform”, rejoiced the leader of the CFDT Laurent Berger, who is preparing his departure of the first French union. And he warned the government, and companies: “everything will be more expensive”, promising to address the bill for this pension reform with a large shopping list. “This May 1st is one of the strongest of the social movement”, added the general secretary of the CGT, Sophie Binet. The figures were in fact well beyond a classic May Day, even if it was not the “tidal wave” hoped for by the unions.
If the anger remains strong, in the government, we want to believe “that we have spent the most in terms of protest”. Emmanuel Macron gave himself on April 17 “100 days of appeasement” and “action” to relaunch his five-year term. Elisabeth Borne will send invitations to the unions “in the coming days”, according to the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt. Within the inter-union, differences are beginning to emerge, even if Frédéric Souillot assures “that there is not a gravel between us”. Already, Laurent Berger has announced that the CFDT “would discuss” with the Prime Minister if she was invited, while Sophie Binet recalled that the inter-union had planned to take the decision “together” Tuesday morning. “We cannot indefinitely dry up meetings at Matignon. We need a renewed balance of power, it is the writing of a new chapter”, pleaded François Hommeril (CFE-CGC).
Obviously, this May 1, 2023 marks a turning point in the social crisis that has been going on since January and the announcement of the pension reform by Elisabeth Borne. A breach seems to open to hear Laurent Berger who felt that the period of decency is ending, but remains like the whole of the inter-union firmly opposed to raising the starting age to 64 years. The future of the intersyndicale, this is the big topic of the moment: its fate will be sealed this Tuesday, May 2 to determine the rest. There is obviously a beginning of division between the CGT and the CFDT, even if the words do not say it. This May 1 being considered the thirteenth day of mobilization, there should be a fourteenth, June 8, the day of the examination in the National Assembly of the bill of the LIOT group restoring the departure to 62 years. Another date to watch, this Wednesday, June 3, the decision of the Constitutional Council on the shared initiative referendum, second version. If confirmed, this RIP will maintain the pressure until the Olympic Games with a mobilization to collect a minimum of 4.7 million signatures. But in reality, there is very little chance, even in this case, that a text will be voted to roll back the Macron reform.
After four months of crisis, the country is understanding that the President of the Republic will never withdraw his pension reform. The Head of State and his government have resumed travel, to the sound of saucepans, and are trying to move on to relaunch the reforms. Friday’s decision by ratings agency Fitch to downgrade France’s debt rating from AA to AA- is a double-edged warning to be taken seriously. On the one hand, he emphasizes the lower quality of the signature of France whose debt exceeds 3000 billion euros or 111% of GDP, a situation aggravated by the rise in interest rates to more than 3 % at ten years. On the other hand, it underlines, for the first time, the danger posed to the French signature with foreign investors by the extreme social and political tension that the country has been going through since the beginning of the year. Images of streets on fire and concerts of pans give the image of a country bogged down in a political impasse, which is not likely to reassure our lenders. It is therefore a warning shot that should encourage a way out of the crisis and move on.
Easier said than done: “if the reform is not withdrawn, confidence will not return”, repeated yesterday Sophie Binet, the new leader of the CGT. But we do feel that there is room for manoeuvre. “We want to talk regarding wage increases and working conditions,” adds Sophie Binet. A scent of Grenelle blows on France, with a shift in mobilization towards other subjects, such as purchasing power to offset inflation. The future Labor law might be the next point of fixation for the unions to obtain the maximum compensation for employees, whether it is the employability of seniors or new subjects such as the universal time savings account, the four week days and value sharing.
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