2023-04-19 09:13:34
Lhe challenges are many and multifaceted. We cannot have economic prosperity without worrying regarding nature, pandemics, fragility, the availability of food, it is now specific to our new world. The facts accumulated over the past three years internationally have not helped Tunisia to emerge from its economic slump: Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021), Ukraine-Russia conflict and its impact on the prices of raw materials and costs logistics, drought, etc. The government did not anticipate this situation. From one crisis to another, it has been shaken up in recent years, which have been hit internally and internationally. Over the past decade, the country’s economic situation was worrying and still is today. It heralds painful adjustments. Everything that has not been undertaken in the cold in terms of reforms will have to be undertaken in the heat of the moment. The consequences of the decline in the country’s resources and the reduction in the government’s budgetary leeway are already being felt in terms of the living conditions of the population and business activity. Likewise, the country’s overall public debt has reached a worrying level. A situation that hinders negotiations with donors, with all that this implies as social consequences. Note that the outstanding public debt of Tunisia reached 117.1 billion dinars at the end of February 2023, up 10% compared to the same period of the past year, according to the Ministry of Finance. Domestic debt represents 43.3% of all outstanding debt, while external debt represents 56.7%. The statistics revealed that the sum allocated to the repayment of debt interest stood at the level of 855 MD, thus exceeding the envelope reserved for the repayment of the principal of the debt (605 MD), which is falling by 56.7%, in February 2023. Tunisia’s recourse to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), because it is still in a cash crisis, is inevitable, knowing that this financial institution and many others have expressed their willingness to support Tunisia to get out of this critical situation. Tunisia’s file will once once more be on the IMF’s table. At the same time, it is called upon to update and put forward the reforms it has announced, because the macroeconomic balances remain fragile as long as the internal (budgetary) and external (balance of payments) deficits persist. Moreover, the first priority for government action would be to tackle these deficits by implementing several actions simultaneously. The weight of the public debt, the surge in inflation and the concern to preserve the level of foreign exchange reserves are sources of concern. Firstly, the situation of public finances, both in terms of expenditure and revenue, already reveals the limited room for manoeuvre. In addition to the action to reduce internal and external deficits and the related corollaries, the second essential file is that of reviving investment, because it is decisive for a return to vigorous economic growth. In short, Tunisia, while resorting to external debt, should also bet on its various internal levers to cover development financing needs.
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