2023-04-19 07:39:00
India will soon win the status of the most populous country in the world. India’s population will reach 1.4286 billion by mid-2023, compared to China’s 1.4257 billion, according to the UN Population Fund’s (UNFPA) state report. of the world population published this Wednesday, April 19.
However, this is an estimate, since India has no official data on the number of its inhabitants. It has not carried out a census since 2011. The census only takes place once a decade in this country.
A long-awaited census
It was supposed to take place in 2021, but it had to be delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Logistical obstacles and political reluctance now prevent it from taking place, and it is unlikely that this large-scale exercise will take place anytime soon.
In this regard, the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is accused by its critics of deliberately delaying the census so as not to release data on sensitive issues, such as unemployment, before national elections next year.
China’s declining population
According to the Pew Research Center, an American think tank, the Indian population has increased by more than a billion people since 1950, the year from which the United Nations began to establish demographic data.
A sharp increase also experienced by China. Its population has doubled since the 1960s, to exceed 1.4 billion today. In 2022, and for the first time in 60 years, however, it fell by 850,000 people, due to a higher number of deaths than births. According to the most pessimistic projections of these demographers, China might have only 587 million inhabitants in 2100, less than half of today.
Paradoxically, this decline occurred despite the relaxation of the birth control policy in recent years. Ten years ago, the Chinese were only allowed to have one child. Since 2021, they can have three.
Peak at 10.4 billion people by 2080
The UNFPA report also estimates that the world’s population will reach 8.045 billion by mid-2023. Globally, population growth is staggering. Last November, the 8 billion inhabitants were exceeded according to the official estimate of the UN.
That is 12 years following crossing the threshold of 7 billion inhabitants. It will take just a little longer, 15 years, to gain a billion additional inhabitants and reach 9 billion inhabitants in 2037. The UN projects a “peak” at 10.4 billion in the 2080s and stagnation until the end of the century.
However, 70 years ago, the world population was much lower: 2.5 billion inhabitants in 1950. This unprecedented growth is explained by “the progressive increase in the length of life thanks to advances in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine”, recalled the UN.
This population growth, which has been accompanied by strong urbanization on a global scale since 2010, also poses formidable challenges to the poorest countries, where it is most concentrated. Not to mention that it amplifies the environmental impact.
In France, population growth is slowing down
By way of comparison, France exceeded the threshold of 68 million inhabitants in 2022. It now represents 15% of the population of the European Union. But according to INSEE, the growth of the French population is increasing more slowly than before: the annual increase was only 0.3% between 2014 and 2020, once morest 0.5% between 2009 and 2014. This slowdown is due to a lower contribution from the natural balance in all regions, except in Guyana, explained the National Institute of Statistics.
(With AFP)
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