Brazil’s financial market raises 2023 inflation forecast to 6.01 pct

2023-04-18 14:46:00

Brazilian financial analysts raised the inflation forecast for
this year from 5.98 percent to 6.01 percent, and from 4.14 percent
to 4.18 percent for next year, the Central Bank of Brazil said
Monday.

Target inflation in Brazil is 3.25 percent this year and 3
percent next year, in both cases with a margin of tolerance of 1.5
percentage points.

According to the central bank’s weekly “Focus” survey of the
country’s top financial institutions, despite the expected increase
in inflation, analysts lowered the forecast for the benchmark
interest rate, called Selic in Brazil.

The Selic forecast went from 12.75 percent to 12.5 percent for
the end of 2023, to then gradually decline to 10 percent by the end
of 2024.

Regarding Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP), analysts
downgraded the growth forecast for 2023 from 0.91 percent to 0.9
percent, and from 1.44 percent to 1.4 percent for 2024.

Brazil’s currency, currently trading at 4.95 reals to the U.S.
dollar, is expected to trade at 5.24 reals to the dollar at the end
of the year and at 5.26 at the end of the next.

The trade balance is projected to leave a surplus of 55.5
billion U.S. dollars in 2023 and 52.3 billion U.S. dollars in
2024.

Foreign direct investment in Brazil should reach 80 billion U.S.
dollars in both 2023 and 2024, according to analysts.

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