2023-04-17 08:26:15
Last week was rich in financial events. The one that opens this morning won’t be lacking either. If it is less focused on inflation, it will be more on businesses. On the other hand, you will not escape monetary policies since a string of speeches by central bankers is on the program for the week. It’s simple, there will be at least one per day and they will concern different central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE, BNS). It is the President of the ECB who is launching hostilities today with a speech scheduled for the end of the followingnoon.
Let’s start if you allow me with a review of the previous week. The equity markets recorded a new weekly progression, even if the atmosphere remains rather heavy in the United States. Despite fairly solid results from the major US banks, the US indices lost ground last Friday, but not enough to prevent the S&P500 from posting a positive weekly score of around 0.80%. The key is elsewhere since the Nasdaq100 is still lagging behind. It nevertheless eroded 0.13% last week, but I am raising it since it is the major index that best symbolizes risk appetite. And so it is clear that even if the CAC40 flies from peak to peak, the libido of investors is not at its peak.
Let’s talk regarding Western indices, which posted weekly gains generally between 1% and 2.5%. To my great astonishment, the palm of the best progress does not go to the Paris Stock Exchange, propelled by its exposure to luxury, which is moreover an excellent barometer of the Chinese recovery, but to the Nordic markets since the OMX Nordic 40 is offered a good of nearly 4% in five sessions. In the rest of the world, Japan also performed silently since the Japanese index, the Nikkei 225, rose 3.8% last week.
To sum up very briefly, equity markets are holding up and investors still have a lot to do. It is in this context that a rather busy week in terms of corporate results has begun. I grant you, we will have to wait until next week to see the quarterly results of the stars of the American rating, which will pour out in the middle of other publications in a very concentrated shooting window. In the meantime, some big names will still communicate their performance for the first quarter. I name a few to get you in the mood: Charles Schwab (Monday), Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Goldman Sachs (Tuesday), ASML Holding, Abbott Laboratories, Morgan Stanley, IBM (Wednesday) , Philip Morris, Rio Tinto, EssilorLuxottica (Thursday), China Mobile, BHP Group, SAP (Friday).
Regarding the macro agenda, if it sounds rather hollow today, it will gradually expand with German economic sentiment tomorrow, jobless claims on Thursday, before reaching its high point on Friday with manufacturing PMIs and services for the month of March for the euro zone and the United States. At the same time, as stated in the introduction, the litany of speeches by American central bankers will keep investors on their toes while they wait for the important decisions to be taken by the Fed in early May.
In the rest of the news, some information that has fallen since this weekend:
- President Macron promulgates the pension reform law.
- The G7 significantly raises its objectives in terms of solar and wind power.
- Violent clashes rock Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces.
- The European Commission denounces the unilateral decisions of Poland and Hungary on imports of Ukrainian cereals.
Chinese markets are starting the week in the green. The Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are up around 1%. The increases are more moderate in Australia and Korea (whose national indices rise by 0.25% and 0.18% respectively), while the Nikkei 225 is treading water. On the other hand, Bombay lost ground at the start of the week with a decline of around 1.2% for the Sensex. In Europe, leading indicators are slightly bullish this morning.
Economic highlights of the day
In the United States, the Empire Manufacturing index for March will be announced at 2:30 p.m., before the NAHB house price index for March (4:00 p.m.). The whole macro diary here.
The euro is breathing $1.098. The ounce of gold also catches its breath at 2000 USD. Oil is stabilizing with Brent from the North Sea at 86.40 USD a barrel and US light crude WTI at 82.50 USD. US debt shows a 10-year yield of 3.51%. Bitcoin is trading at 30000 USD.
The main changes in recommendations
- Atos: Citi raises its target from 10.5 to 12 EUR.
- Comet: Credit Suisse remains outperforming but lowers its target from 300 to 275 CHF.
- Diageo: Goodbody initiates its coverage with a recommendation to keep and targets 3700 GBX.
- EssilorLuxottica: Bernstein downgrades its outperformance recommendation to online performance but raises its target from EUR 180 to EUR 185.
- Euroapi: JPMorgan lowers its target from 18 to 16 EUR.
- EutelSat: Morgan Stanley lowers its target from 9 to 7.5 EUR.
- Fortum: Citi goes from buy to neutral and targets EUR 15.40.
- Givaudan: Berenberg downgrades its buy recommendation to keep and lowers its target from 3400 to 3300 CHF.
- Hermès: Citi raises its target from 1873 to 2010 EUR. Morgan Stanley raises its target from 1900 to 2080 EUR. Oddo raises its own from 2000 to 2073 EUR.
- ING Groep: Baptistat Research LLP initiates its coverage with a buy recommendation targeting EUR 17.60.
- Motor Oil Hellas: Goldman Sachs downgrades its buy recommendation to neutral and targets EUR 28.50.
- National Grid: JP Morgan remains overweight and raises its target from 1150 to 1275 GBX.
- Partners Group: Jefferies remains to be retained and lowers its target from 910 to 875 CHF.
- Rieter: Credit Suisse is neutral and raises its target from 100 to 104 CHF.
- RS Group: RBC Capital Markets goes from sector performance to outperformance and aims for 1000 GBX.
- Sampo OYJ: ABG Sundal Collier downgrades its advice to buy and hold by aiming for EUR 46.50.
- Shop Apotheke: Jefferies remains long and raises its target to EUR 140,150.
- Solvay: KBC Securities raises its advice to strengthen to buy and increases its target from 135 to 155 EUR.
- Swiss Life: Barclays remains overweight and raises its target from CHF 620 to CHF 625.
- TeamViewer: Berenberg raises his advice to keep to buy and aims for 21 EUR.
- Tele2 AB: DNB Markets downgrades its buy advice to neutral by targeting 110 SEK.
- Tryg A/S: ABG Sundal Collier raises its advice to keep to buy and targets 169 DKK.
- Ubisoft: Barclays raises its target from 19.75 to 23.25 EUR.
- Valeo: Stifel raises its target from 16 to 21 EUR.
- VAT Group: Baader Helvea goes from accumulating to reducing but raises its target from 249 to 259 CHF.
- Zur Rose: Jefferies remains long but downgrades its target from 64 to 60 CHF.
In France
Important (and less important) announcements
- According to Archyde.com, Airbus wishes to collaborate with the Brazilian Embraer in the field of defense and space.
- Societe Generale accepts a settlement agreement of 105 million dollars in the United States to settle the affair of the fixing of the Euribor.
- Renault sales rose 9% in the first quarter.
- TotalEnergies delivers first LNG shipment to Dhamra LNG terminal
- Faurecia did better than expected in the first quarter and confirmed its objectives for 2023.
- Neoen wins a 49.8 MWc solar project in France.
- BioMérieux forms a partnership with Oxford Nanopore for the diagnosis of infectious diseases.
- Nexans signs a contract to bury an EHV line in Switzerland worth 25 million euros.
- Eutelsat Communications forms a partnership with Poulsat in North Africa.
- Aurea finalizes the acquisition of 100% of the capital of the British company Real Alloy UK.
- They will publish: Virbac, Catana Group…
In the world
Important (and less important) announcements
- Merck & Co will acquire Prometheus Biosciences Inc for $10.8 billion.
- Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has doubled its stake in Saudi Aramco to 8%.
- The Fed gives the green light to the takeover of the American branches of Credit Suisse by UBS.
- BAE Systems is in talks with Brazil on a possible combat vehicle project.
- Roche claims phase 3 clinical success in liver cancer.
- Sega Sammy plans to buy the Finnish group Rovio, publisher of the game Angry Birds.
- Iberdrola’s electricity production rose 6.3% in the first quarter.
- Ryanair believes that it is not affected by Boeing’s delivery delays.
- The Swiss group Bossard posted a 4% increase in sales in the first quarter.
- Sulzer’s orders jump 31.20% in the first quarter.
- Main publications of the day: Charles Schwab, State Street, M&T Bank, Exor… The whole agenda here.
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