Additional reports on ‘U.S. classified documents’… “Expectation of attrition to continue until next year”
Ukraine’s attack on mainland Russia stimulates Putin and concerns regarding escalation of war
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Simhal (left), who is visiting the United States, visits the Pentagon on the 12th (local time) and attends a welcoming ceremony with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. AP Yonhap News
The U.S. Department of Defense has revealed that it believes that the war is likely to continue next year as neither Ukraine nor Russia has a decisive victory and refuses to negotiate peace. The Washington Post (WP) reported on the 12th (local time) that among the recently leaked Pentagon documents, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) had obtained a document analyzing the direction of the war in Ukraine.
According to reports, the DIA said it would not initiate peace negotiations even if Ukraine recaptured much of its territory lost to Russia and dealt a serious blow to Russia. No,” he analyzed. The DIA also predicted that the two countries might gain only a fraction of the territory this year, “due to a lack of troops and supplies for effective operations.”
The DIA analyzed that the most likely scenario in the future is a situation in which a war of attrition continues with neither side winning. The DIA predicted that, in this case, “there is a possibility of a leadership change” as criticism of the war is formed in Ukraine. It is not clear whether the ‘leadership change’ referred to here is in a political or military context. However, the WP pointed out that although President Volodymyr Zelensky enjoys high approval ratings, tensions exist between President Zelensky and Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyy, who is being discussed as a potential presidential candidate.
The war stalemate is likely to lead to general mobilization in Ukraine, the DIA analyzed. It also predicted that Ukraine would intensify its aggression once morest the Russian mainland in this case. The U.S. is concerned that Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s mainland will provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin into escalating the war or become an excuse for China to provide arms to Russia.
If the war continues in a stalemate, it is expected that Russia will mobilize its reserve forces to make up for the shortage of troops and speed up the annexation of the territories it has taken away. European expert Heather Conney, head of the German Marshall Fund (GMF), told the WP that she agrees with the DIA’s analysis that negotiations will only begin once either side has completely exhausted their resources, and that is unlikely for now.
According to the WP, the DIA document also includes a scenario regarding a situation when either Ukraine or Russia wins.
The DIA predicts that if Russia strikes a decisive blow and seizes more territory in Ukraine, it will attempt regime change. If Ukraine wins, it is highly likely to carry out a more dangerous attack to gain more territory, and Russia is expected to respond with an asymmetrical attack. However, the DIA analyzed that “it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons,” and that it will try to continue the war by reinforcing its forces through a nationwide mobilization order.