China’s March Export Surprises 14.8% Year-on-Year Growth, Imports Fall 1.4%, Beating Expectations – WSJ

In March, China’s exports in U.S. dollars unexpectedly surged by 14.8%, while imports fell by 1.4% year-on-year, achieving a trade surplus of 88.19 billion U.S. dollars, which was much better than expected across the board.

Updated April 13, 2023 13:55 CST

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday morning, in terms of US dollars, exports unexpectedly surged by 14.8% in March this year, ending four consecutive declines, and the year-on-year decline in imports narrowed sharply to 1.4%, achieving a trade surplus of US$88.19 billion. Much better than market expectations.

So far, the continuous negative growth of China’s exports since October last year has finally turned positive, and achieved double-digit high growth in one fell swoop.

Previously, exports from January to February fell by 6.8% year-on-year, imports fell by 10.2%, and the trade surplus was US$116.88 billion.

In October last year, China’s exports unexpectedly fell by 0.3% year-on-year, and imports also fell by 0.7%. After that, the declines in November and December further expanded. Among them, exports fell by 8.7% in November and 9.9% in December.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday morning, in terms of US dollars, exports unexpectedly surged by 14.8% in March this year, ending four consecutive declines, and the year-on-year decline in imports narrowed sharply to 1.4%, achieving a trade surplus of US$88.19 billion. Much better than market expectations.

So far, the continuous negative growth of China’s exports since October last year has finally turned positive, and achieved double-digit high growth in one fell swoop.

Previously, exports from January to February fell by 6.8% year-on-year, imports fell by 10.2%, and the trade surplus was US$116.88 billion.

In October last year, China’s exports unexpectedly fell by 0.3% year-on-year, and imports also fell by 0.7%. After that, the declines in November and December further expanded. Among them, exports fell by 8.7% in November and 9.9% in December.

In July last year, China’s trade data was still quite good: exports increased by 18% year-on-year, imports increased by 2.3%, and the trade surplus reached US$101.26 billion; the growth rate slowed down significantly in August, but it still maintained the growth momentum in September.

In U.S. dollars, China’s exports will increase by 7.0% year-on-year in 2022, imports will increase by 1.1%, and the trade surplus will be US$877.60 billion; in 2021, exports will increase by 29.9% year-on-year, imports will increase by 30.1%, and the trade surplus will be US$676.43 billion.

According to a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal, China’s March exports are expected to have fallen 7.0% year-on-year, while imports have fallen 5.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of $41 billion.

China Customs also simultaneously released data denominated in RMB.

In RMB terms, China’s exports in March increased by 23.4% year-on-year, and imports increased by 6.1%, achieving a trade surplus of 601.01 billion yuan.

Previously, exports from January to February turned to a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and imports turned to a decrease of 2.9%; the trade surplus was 810.32 billion yuan.

In December last year, China’s exports fell by 0.5% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of 550.11 billion yuan.

In RMB terms, in 2022, exports will increase by 10.5% year-on-year, imports will increase by 4.3%, and the trade surplus will be 5,862.98 billion yuan; in 2021, China’s exports will increase by 21.2% year-on-year, and imports will increase by 21.5% year-on-year; the trade surplus will be 4.36 trillion yuan.

(This article is from Dow Jones Chinese Financial News)

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