A study by the VUB has found that there are around 500,000 unregistered people present in Belgium every day, with many being European nationals who do not have to register. The study analysed death registers to determine the number of unregistered people in the country, with approximately 112,000 having no residence permit and being illegal residents. The research team used the data to estimate annual deaths – around 500 – with a low estimate that was consistent with other estimates of between 100,000 and 200,000. The study also showed that the average age of undocumented migrants has risen slightly from 28.4 in 2006 to 33.6 in 2016.
Belgium has an average of 500,000 unregistered people present on its territory every day, according to a study carried out by the VUB. A large number of them are European nationals who have access to the territory without having to register. Others are occasional tourists or asylum seekers with a residence permit. But regarding 112,000 of these people do not have a residence permit and are illegal residents, analyzed the three authors of the work.
The study conducted by the VUB and Innoviris (the Brussels Institute for Scientific Research) looked at these people who usually escape counting. For this, the researchers analyzed death registers. Indeed, all the deaths recorded on Belgian territory are listed, whether the deceased are declared to the authorities or not, with, each time, the age, sex and causes of death. By subtracting the deaths of registered people from the total deaths, the researchers were able to determine the number of deaths of unregistered people.
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An original method
”For the period studied, there were an average of 500 deaths of unrecorded people per year”, explains Johan Surkyn, demographer at the VUB, who led the study. The researchers then extrapolated this number with the mortality probabilities. “We know, for each age group, the probabilities of death. These predictions are considered very reliable. They are used, for example, by insurers”, specifies the researcher. This is the first time that such a method has been used to study the number of people who escape radar. Clarification: the study has not yet been reviewed by other scientists and it has not yet been published in a journal.
During the last period studied (2012-2016), Belgium had an average of 489,000 unregistered people every day on its territory, including 112,000 illegal residents. “This is consistent with the estimates that have been circulating so far. It is generally estimated that there are between 100,000 and 200,000 undocumented migrants in Belgium. We are therefore in a low estimate”, analyzes Johan Surkyn. Slightly less than half of them (52,000) would be in Brussels, according to projections. During this same period, Belgium had 11.2 million inhabitants.
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Average age on the rise
Thanks to the data collected via death certificates, the researchers were able to observe that during the three periods studied (1998-2006; 2007-2011; 2012-2016), the characteristics of undocumented migrants have changed. In nearly 18 years, the average age of undocumented migrants has increased slightly, from 28.4 years in 2006 to 33.6 years in 2016. This trend seems to show that people residing illegally stay on Belgian territory, despite orders to leave the territory. “In previous adjustments (in 1999 and 2009 – Ed), most of the people who received a residence permit were between 25 and 40 years old. More women had been regularized, in particular because they had children enrolled in Belgian schools. We see in the figures that the proportion of men is increasing, and so is the average age. This seems to show that a group remains in the territory. But the study does not prove it”, observes the researcher. In 2006, men made up 55% of this group, up from 60% in 2016.
”Irregular stay is never a good solution. It is precisely for this reason that we provide individual follow-up and strengthen the return policy”, reacted the Secretary of State for Asylum and Migration, Nicole de Moor (CD&V).
The study conducted by the VUB sheds light on an issue that has been lurking in the shadows. The fact that there are almost half a million unregistered people living in Belgium is a cause for concern, especially since a significant portion of them are illegal residents. The use of death certificates to estimate the number of unregistered people is an innovative method that might be used in the future to gauge the prevalence of other hidden phenomena. The fact that the average age of undocumented migrants is increasing seems to indicate that there is a group of people who choose to remain in the country despite being ordered to leave. While the study does not confirm this hypothesis, it raises important questions regarding the effectiveness of current policies in dealing with illegal residents. Ultimately, it is up to policymakers to use these results to come up with better solutions to address this issue in Belgium.
