Global markets, which had a bad first quarter of the year, also started the second quarter poorly and the main story for pricing is stagnation. Although there is no new wave in the banking crisis, markets are still waiting in suspense and weak data in major economies has raised recession fears to the highest level..
US data gives negative signals
The situation is expected to become more evident in the labor market, which has not slowed to the extent feared until now. The weak data, the increase in weekly jobless claims, the decline in the services sector and the continuation of the resignations, suggest that the sector may be affected sharply, rather than slightly as previously reported. This reduces risk appetite in the markets and stimulates demand for safe assets.
The fact that oil exporting countries have cut their supplies this month was a testament to how high the probability of a recession is.
We can see notable moves in commodities such as silver, the 10-year move and decline .
Over $2000 an ounce of gold looks very easy, non-farm payrolls still seem to be below expectations and any news flow will add to gold’s momentum. Gold reached a record high of $2,074 and the price rose to $2,032 this week. The movement can get stronger at higher levels. In the short term, any increase above $1980 already paves the way for the new level.
Domestically, the data was poor, but it was confirmed that economic policy will continue following the elections. In his speech yesterday, the President said that they will implement these policies, which have gone well, more strongly with Mehmet Simsek’s team..
If we remember, Mehmet Şimşek’s name came to prominence in the past weeks, but he declared that he would work in the background without engaging in active politics. Frankly, I don’t think Mehmet Simsek’s name will find a response in the market, because no matter how good the names are for the markets, the final decision is up to the president. We saw this in the Eleven Mountains. When these names were appointed to the Central Bank and Treasury, there was positive feedback and expectations that they would implement the expected monetary and fiscal policy, but they were fired for trying to do so. So, if futures names continue under current policies and offer one-day saving practices like protected bonds MOHThis will certainly not have a positive response in the markets.
expected loss in TL
Nowadays, international organizations draw attention to the value and unsustainability of the Turkish lira and share their predictions of losses following the elections. The fact that the Turkish lira has been stable once morest the dollar for so long, no matter what happened for so long, clearly shows that the price has not been good. Organizations that see that the exchange rate will be gradually reduced following the elections make different estimates, but when we take an average of these estimates, it is expected to be higher than 21 TL, especially from the third quarter of the year.
The situation that has caused the controlled pricing of the dollar since December 2021 is purely perception. In other words, with a protected bond MOH, designed to break citizens’ perception that foreign currencies will appreciate more, on the one hand, payments are increasing, and on the other hand, reserves are vanishing to maintain the exchange rate. Besides, the loss of foreign institutions in the Turkish lira is less than the fair value, emphasizing the reserve problem.
What you see is important
An economy’s foreign trade deficit is not a bad thing in and of itself. Large economies also suffer from deficits. But if there is deterioration in most branches of the economy and it cannot be managed, then there is a problem. However, if the economic figures break in exports are mentioned without mentioning the problem of growth in foreign trade or the current account deficit, the situation cannot be read correctly. It also appears that the mode is required to be hidden.
The activity is clearly in the assets of the Turkish lira TL It will increase in the near future. Each attack on the currency front will increase the speed of gold’s record-breaking ascent with an impact on the ounce for a while. For a gram of gold, which broke a record this week with 1,258 TL, there may be much higher levels in the coming period. My first estimate for the active period you mentioned is 1,360 TL.
When we look at prices today؛
The 50-day moving average crosses at 1,157 TL and is very close to the 1,160 support point. Looking at the price above this level, the 1.300 TL level is now important as the new threshold..
