This forecast takes into account sector estimates and indicators collected until the end of March 2023, specifies the HCP which has just published its Economic update for the first quarter of 2023 and the outlook for the second quarter.
Thus, the agricultural value added would have recovered, in the first quarter of 2023, by 2.1%, in annual variation, following having fallen by 14.3% during the same period of the previous year, while the other branches would have increased by 3.1%, on the back of the improvement in external demand.
The revival of crop production would, however, have been confronted since the beginning of the current campaign with low rainfall and a rise in temperatures, notes the HCP.
Since November 2022, cumulative rainfall until March 2023 has been below the seasonal normal of 16.5%, notes the HCP, noting that the largest deficits would have been located in Souss, Haouz and Chaouia.
For its part, the filling rate of the dams would have reached 34.6% at the end of March, adds the same source.
In this context, market garden production would not have returned to its average level of the last five campaigns and exports of tomatoes and vegetables would have fallen by 5.3% at the end of the first two months of 2023.
Livestock activities appear to have continued to decline, in a context of expanding imports of cattle and sheep for slaughter, but poultry production appears to have resumed, in the wake of the increase in chicken meat production meat by 1.4%, in the first quarter of 2023, in annual variation, instead of -1.8% a quarter earlier.
After slowing down at the end of 2022, non-agricultural activity should have returned to more sustained growth in Q1-2023, driven by the dynamics of the tertiary branches. In particular, the performance of tourism activity, which began in mid-2022, would have continued at the rate of +51.3% in the first quarter of 2023, in the wake of the international sporting events organized at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. tourist arrivals and overnight stays would have more than tripled and travel receipts would have quadrupled in the first quarter of 2023.
Transport activity, for its part, appears to have continued its recovery, driven by the firming up of air traffic. Non-market services, sustained by the recovery in operating expenditure, would have experienced a significant recovery, contributing 0.4 points to overall economic growth.
Conversely, the activity of the secondary branches would have marked time in the first quarter of 2023. Mining activity would have posted a drop of 10.2%, in annual variation, following -16% in the previous quarter.
Construction activity would also have fallen for the third consecutive quarter, posting a decline of 3.8%, in annual variation.
On the other hand, the activity of the manufacturing industries would have accelerated, in a context marked by the easing of the difficulties in the supply of raw materials, mainly of foreign origin, and by the slight fall in the costs of inputs and transport.
