The Montreal Canadiens, who have lost their last four games, and the Arizona Coyotes, on an eight-game losing streak (including two in overtime), are currently involved in a great race for mediocrity.
The two clubs, who still have four games to play each, seem destined to finish either 27th or 28th overall.
• Read also: The Bedard “treasure” hunt: see the odds of CH winning the lottery
• Read also: Here’s what current players Connor Bedard and other top prospects compare to in the upcoming NHL Draft
To the chagrin of head coach Martin St-Louis, who has always been fueled by victories, the final run might have a significant impact in view of the next repechage. For the moment, the Coyotes (27-38-13) are 27th with 67 points in the standings, one more than the CH (30-42-6).
Select from the top 5
Naturally, there is a lot of talk regarding Connor Bedard and the lottery surrounding the future first choice, but the current end of the season will also influence the selection of the top five or six prospects. Behind Bedard, the next vintage notably brings together the promising Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, Will Smith, Zach Benson and Dalibor Dvorsky.
By finishing in the bottom five teams overall, the Canadian would secure one of the top seven picks. He would also have a 41.8% probability of picking in the top 5, compared to 15.4% for the club finishing in 27th position.
To avoid headaches, here is a summary of the percentages awarded to the clubs that will finish in 27th and 28th positions:
- % of getting first choice
28e : 8,5%
27e: 7.5%
- % of select among the top 2
28e : 17,3%
27e: 15.4%
- % of draft in the top 5
28e : 41,8%
27e: 15.4%
- % of draft in the top 6
28e : 86%
27e: 49.5%
- % select from top 7
28e : 100%
27e: 90.9%
It must be admitted that the difference is enormous, especially for obtaining the fifth or sixth choice. This is why the Canadiens and the Coyotes each have an interest in losing by the end of the regular season.
The Habs’ final four games are scheduled for April 13 once morest the Washington Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Islanders and Boston Bruins. The Coyotes have two meetings with the Seattle Kraken, as well as with the Anaheim Ducks and the Vancouver Canucks.
The next draft has not finished talking. The date of the lottery: May 8.
