The Marada Movement leader, Suleiman Franjieh, recently visited Paris to meet with Middle East affairs advisor, Patrick Dorrell. Al-Akhbar reporter Nicolas Nassif speculates that Franjieh’s visit may indicate the end of his presidential candidacy. However, Paris may see Franjieh’s exit from the race as a gateway to a solution, recognising him as a senior voter and seeking an alternative option. It is thought that Franjieh’s election may face major obstacles, including the reluctance of Christian opponents and Sunni trends to support him. Hezbollah, Franjieh’s nominators, reportedly hold the view that compelling Franjieh to abandon his candidacy might not be politically or morally appropriate. Moreover, with all major Christian parties boycotting Franjieh’s candidacy, a vote to elect him as president is unlikely. Thus, if Paris seeks to abandon Franjieh as a presidential candidate, it will come with a price to pay, including giving up the idea of electing Nawaf Salam as head of the government.
Nicolas Nassif wrote in Al-Akhbar:
Paris is once once more a station for the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh. Eight years ago, it was more urgent than him, when French President Francois Hollande called him, congratulating him on the Lebanese presidency, before making sure that his candidacy was approved by his allies first. That call was a notification, as if the election had taken place, then negative reactions followed, which ended a year later with the election of President Michel Aoun. It was said at the time that France blessed the concluded settlement without attributing publicly to itself, at least the last credit for it. In the current entitlement, it is trying to restore the same role with an exaggeration, more vitality, and a benefit that makes it for the second time, in almost a hundred years since the declaration of the Lebanese Republic in 1926 and its recommendation for the election of President Charles Debbas, the maker of the election of the president of Lebanon. If true, it will be the first time since then.
Until the motives for inviting Franjieh to Paris and his meeting with the advisor to the French President in charge of Middle East affairs, Patrick Dorrell, are fully disclosed, conflicting speculations will continue to haunt the sudden visit. It was said that it was the end of Franjieh’s candidacy journey. The opposite was said as well, as if it were consolidating his election. However, it is also certain that visiting Paris is not necessarily the last stage of the presidential vacancy. This impression is reinforced by a few recent facts:
First, Franjieh’s invitation to Paris is not separate from the ongoing contacts between the French and Hezbollah regarding the presidential elections. It is attributed to the party for giving “advice” to Paris to invite the former deputy of Zgharta and to discuss with him the difficulties he faces in issuing his candidacy and, consequently, his election as President of the Republic. What he is supposed to hear in Paris will determine the next path, following everyone, Franjieh’s supporters and opponents, became certain that his election would face major obstacles at home as well as abroad that would be difficult to overcome. One of the signs of this stumbling block is that Franjieh hears from the French their position on his candidacy, and the transition to an option other than him comes out accordingly.
Secondly, Frangieh’s invitation to Paris to meet a high-ranking official in the Elysee is intended to prove his respect for him by not only asking him to abandon his candidacy, but rather acknowledging him as a senior voter in terms of his merit and who might come to consensus on him as an alternative option that would win his support and replace him in the next stage. . Paris wants it – and not Hezbollah – to be the godfather of Franjieh’s exit from the race, on the grounds that it is a gateway to a solution.
Third, some of those who meet with Hezbollah officials sense the seriousness of their negative assessment of proceeding with the battle for his candidacy without it reaching the desired conclusion. It is not in the political and moral considerations of the party, at any possible moment, to ask Franjieh to abandon his candidacy, even though the Shiite duo nominated him without running himself. What he did not do with President Michel Aoun for two and a half years, he will not do the same with him. However, what is also important in what led to the election of Aoun and is still preventing Franjieh from succeeding him is that the two opportunities, Christian and Sunni in 2016, now stand opposite him. In order for all Christian opponents to unite once morest him, it is no secret that Riyadh, in turn, opposes his election. The head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, reaffirmed his failure to go along with the election of Franjieh as one of the implicit Saudi messages, not to mention the reluctance of the Sunni trends affected by the Saudi position to announce their support for him.
Fourth, what comes to be mentioned by party officials in closed meetings reveals a real justification for the obstacles that Franjieh’s election must face. What Hezbollah is certain of is that there will be no election for its Zghartawi ally in light of the boycott of all the Christian parties and blocs that are most represented in their sect, except for Christian deputies who are allies of the Shiite duo, who cannot cover the abstention and rejection of others. It is the same reason that prompted the Secretary-General of the party, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to confirm the commitment of the quorum prescribed for the presidential election session, which is 86 deputies, which is not available to any of the parties as well as the Shiite duo and its allies. This sign is nothing but that Hezbollah does not want a president elected once morest the will of his sect, even if he is on his side, and cannot find a replacement for him. This is also the significance of Speaker Nabih Berri’s statement – as an extension of the need for a quorum of at least 86 votes – that the presidency, as in the history of the Maronites, is their problem first.
Fifthly, Franjieh’s exit from the presidency – if that is indeed what the visit aims at – is not the only price paid by Hezbollah, as well as the Speaker of Parliament, the first to announce his candidacy. There is another price that Paris must incur in turn by abandoning what Riyadh rejected, which is the exchange of electing Franjieh by naming the former ambassador, Nawaf Salam, to head the government. The French did not once say that they were behind offering the barter, always contenting themselves with responding that it was proposed to them and they negotiated it in the hope that it would close the presidential vacancy. Thus, the equation of the New Testament is reformulated in a balanced and equal way between two similar profiles, one of which complements the other, a president of the republic and a head of government who enjoy identical and similar characteristics, so neither of them comes from a valley. That is what she represented for a while, and it seemed to be a difficult barter in bringing together two people, like Franjieh and Salam, who belong to two incompatible political classes, and to two types of character, relations, and political culture that are difficult to be together.
In conclusion, the sudden visit of Suleiman Franjieh to Paris and his meeting with Patrick Dorrell, the advisor to the French President, has sparked conflicting speculations regarding the fate of his candidacy for the Lebanese presidency. While some believe that the visit marks the end of his journey, others speculate that it is consolidating his election. However, until the motives behind the visit are fully disclosed, it remains unclear what the next path will be. What is certain though is that Franjieh’s election is facing major obstacles both at home and abroad that would be difficult to overcome. With conflicting positions from various Christian and Sunni parties, as well as Saudi Arabia’s opposition to his election, the road to the presidency seems to be a challenging one for Franjieh. Nonetheless, the visit to Paris signifies that there are ongoing efforts to reach a solution to the longstanding presidential vacancy in Lebanon. Only time will tell what the outcome of these efforts will be.
