No, there was no real threat. When dozens of schools in Bulgaria were cleared and closed a few days ago because of bomb threats, Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev tried to calm down – also with a view to the approaching parliamentary elections. After all, a large number of urns are set up in schools. But the election process would only be interrupted if there was a real danger – and there was no such danger, Demerdzhiev assured.
It is the fifth time in two years that Bulgarians will be called to the polls on Sunday. They are already tired of it – the turnout in the last vote indicates that. In October, just over a third of the more than 6.6 million people entitled to vote had cast their vote. At that time, the conservative Gerb, which, under the leadership of ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, determined Bulgarian politics for a decade, won. However, she no longer found enough allies to form a cabinet.
Head-to-head race expected
Previously, the government of Kiril Petkov had collapsed, a laboriously put together and therefore fragile coalition of four. The two Harvard graduates Petkov and Assen Wassilew with their reform party PP (We continue change), which was founded just over a year and a half ago, claimed to fight corruption in the poorest EU country. You were also involved in the mass demonstrations almost three years ago, when Bulgarians took to the streets for weeks to protest once morest bribery, oligarchy and the government.
Now PP is hoping for another chance. The party is running for elections together with several other groups, including the bourgeois alliance Democratic Bulgaria. According to current forecasts, they will probably be in a head-to-head race with Gerb: a quarter of those surveyed want to vote for one of the two blocks. The Turkish Minority Party (DPS) and the right-wing populist pro-Russian group Wazraschdane (Rebirth) can also count on seats in the 240-strong National Assembly.
Is the south-eastern European country threatened with another political stalemate? Norbert Beckmann-Dierkes from the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation (KAS) is “cautiously confident” that it will be possible to form a government following April 2nd. Because the pressure to do so is increasing from both inside and outside. “The parties have understood that the Bulgarians are very tired: people do not find the sporting discipline ‘We re-elect every six months’ unconvincing,” says the head of the KAS foreign office in Sofia: “Internationally too, it is expected that those responsible in Bulgaria finally come together to form a government.”
Especially since the programmatic differences in a number of important topics are not too great. Membership in NATO and the EU is not being shaken, admission to the Schengen and euro zones is being sought – even if, in view of inflation and rising living costs, there are fears among the population that admission to the common currency area might bring disadvantages.
The President as a strong man
There is also broad consensus in opposing the Russian war in Ukraine. Even pro-Russian forces, which traditionally exist in Bulgaria, cannot openly defend Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, military aid for Ukraine had long been controversial: the then Prime Minister Petkov and his Finance Minister Vasilev therefore found unofficial ways to deliver ammunition and fuel to the invaded country. In the meantime, the military support has been approved in the parliament in Sofia.
However, President Rumen Radev has repeatedly criticized this decision. The former fighter pilot and reserve major general has strengthened his position over the past two years. He has seen transitional governments come and go, flown to EU summits and expressed his opinions there. “He is perceived as one of the strong political figures in Bulgaria, including among the population,” says Beckmann-Dierkes. “That goes beyond his actual presidential function, because Radew appoints the governments and repeatedly makes political statements.”
The fact that this may contradict the government line does not seem to bother him. This became apparent, for example, in the struggle for military support for Ukraine. According to the expert, these political dissonances also increase the pressure on campaigning politicians to form a government following the vote “if the country doesn’t want to slide into a presidential system.”
expansion of nuclear power
Whoever forms the next cabinet will face, among other things, the task of stimulating the economy. Even if this is not developing so badly: in the previous year it grew by a good three percent, the budget deficit was also around three percent. Former Prime Minister Petkow points out that social benefits and minimum wages have been increased under his government.
However, inflation is high; it was around 14 percent. Energy security is also an issue. Bulgaria has managed to shake off its heavy dependence on Russian gas. Now nuclear energy is to be expanded, and the contracts for new nuclear reactors are ready to be signed. The Kozloduy nuclear power plant on the Danube already produces a good third of the electricity consumed in the country.
Some groups are struggling with other effects of the war in Ukraine. In recent days, Bulgarian grain producers have been protesting once morest duty-free Ukrainian exports, which are being subsidized by the EU. Farmers used tractors to block border crossings to Romania, which is neighboring Ukraine.
