For the regional election in Wallonia, as well as for the House of Representatives, there are two types of candidates on electoral lists: effective candidates and substitutes. Substitutes may take the place of an elected candidate who resigns or cannot fulfill their duties. However, the current Walloon majority (PS-MR-Écolo) wants to abolish the use of substitute lists during this legislative period, which ends in 2024. The goal is to have non-elected candidates ranked by their electoral results to serve as replacements. The idea is inspired by the municipal elections in Wallonia which already abolished substitute lists years ago. This desire to remove substitutes from the Walloon electoral lists has been around since the early 2000s, but to pass it requires a special decree with a two-thirds majority vote in Parliament. The current majority has 54 elected officials, so the reform should pass with ease. However, the government only has two months to adopt it as the modification must be validated at least one year before the election. The date of the next regional election, which coincides with the European and Belgian legislative elections, is expected to be Sunday May 26, 2024. However, the Walloon government seems to be blocking the reform, which includes revising the provincial matching mechanism. This mechanism combines votes won by the same party in different electoral boroughs of the same province to win additional seats. While the government intends to decide on the issue next week, it seems the MR is blocking it, possibly due to the tension between the socialists and liberals in the Wallonia-Brussels Federation, the loss of power for parties with the removal of substitutes, and technical reasons affecting the matching mechanism. These factors influence politics which is sometimes more regarding mathematics.
The electoral lists for the regional election in Wallonia (as for the House of Representatives for that matter) are made up of effective candidates and substitute candidates. The latter may be required to replace an effective elected candidate who decides to leave the assembly to become a minister, because he cannot combine with another function, because he wishes to redirect his career, etc.
The current Walloon majority (PS-MR-Écolo) decided, when it was installed in 2019, to proceed with the abolition of the lists of substitutes during the course of the legislature which will end in 2024. It thus wishes to model itself on the municipal elections in Wallonia for which the list of substitutes was abolished several years ago. The idea is to classify the non-elected candidates of a list according to their electoral results and to seek in this classification of non-elected candidates the replacement of an elected official who is leaving.
This desire to remove substitutes from the Walloon electoral lists is not new. We were already talking regarding it in the early 2000s without anything being set in motion to allow this reform. You should know that such a decision must go through the vote of a special decree requiring a two-thirds majority in Parliament. In Wallonia, it therefore takes 50 deputies who vote in favor of such a decree for it to be adopted.
That’s good, the current Walloon majority has 54 elected officials. The reform must therefore in principle pass like a letter in the post. But things are obviously more complex since the government only has two months left to have its text adopted. Indeed, if this modification is not validated at least one year before the holding of the ballot, it can only be applied for the following ballot. The date of the next regional elections which will take place on the same day as the European elections (and the Belgian legislative ones) is not yet known. But it would seem that the European Parliament, which must soon take the decision, would lean towards Sunday May 26, 2024. There are therefore two months left to vote on this text.
But here it is, it seems that the Walloon government is blocking this reform, which must also revise the provincial matching mechanism in force during the Walloon regional elections. Remember that this is a corrective mechanism allowing the addition of the votes obtained by the same party in different electoral boroughs of the same province. It’s quite technical but for the parties that achieve the best scores, it’s an opportunity to win one elected official or the other.
If officially, the government wants to decide the point next week, it would seem that things are not so simple. It is the MR who would block the file, which the Liberals deny, citing a technical problem.
Three potential reasons are mentioned. The first concerns the current tensions between socialists and liberals in open conflict, at the Wallonia-Brussels Federation, in the file of masters in medicine.
The second resides in the fact that the abolition of substitutes on the electoral lists removes a small piece of power from the parties which constitute the lists. Indeed, the place of 1st substitute sometimes makes it easier to access a mandate as a deputy than an effective place on the list. It all depends of course on who the candidate is the alternate. If it is regarding a ministerable person, it is often a royal way to have a seat of deputy. The first substitution therefore allows party presidents to push a new head who would have little chance of being elected by the traditional route. It is therefore often highly sought following and also creates a certain debt with regard to the party for those who benefit from it. A point that annoys the MR but almost as much the PS.
The third reason is indeed technical and directly affects the reform of the matching mechanism. By reducing its scope, the reform might cause some to lose seats in the next election.
Politics, at times, is above all mathematics.
In conclusion, the debate over the abolition of substitutes on electoral lists in Wallonia is not new, but it has taken on new urgency as the regional election approaches. While the current majority wishes to see the reform introduced in time for the 2024 election, it appears that political infighting and a desire to hold on to a certain amount of party power may be obstructing progress. However, the clock is ticking, and the government has only two months left to get its text adopted. In the end, whether or not substitutes are removed from the electoral lists may come down to a matter of math, as parties and candidates jockey for position in the run-up to the election. The fate of this reform remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that it will have significant implications for the upcoming regional election in Wallonia.
