The Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques (INED) has just published a report on mortality and birth rates in France, three years following the start of the global Covid-19 crisis. Where is France in terms of birth rate? How can the observed slowdown in life expectancy be explained? The analysis of the report makes it possible to know more regarding these two questions.
France will reach 68 million inhabitants in 2023 thanks to birth and death rates, but for how long?
France would have passed the milestone of 68 million inhabitants on 1is January 2023with an increase of 217,000 people in 2022. This increase is the result of two complementary phenomena, on the one hand of a surplus of births in relation to the number of deaths, and on the other hand to the migratory flux, with more entries than exits from the territory. But gradually, the gap between births and deaths is narrowing, a phenomenon that should be confirmed in the years to come.
According to INSEE estimates and projections, the number of deaths should thus become higher than the number of births from 2035. However, the fertility rate would be stable at around 1.8 children per woman, but insufficient to ensure generational renewal (guaranteed for a fertility rate greater than or equal to 2.1 children per woman). In terms of life expectancy, it continues to progress, but to a lesser extent. In 2070, it might reach 88.7 years, i.e. 6 years more than in 2019.
The impacts of Covid-19 on the birth rate and mortality in 2022
If births are maintained, deaths are increasing slightly, with 5,000 additional deaths in 2022 compared to 2021. If the year 2020 had seen a decline in life expectancy, in connection with the Covid-19 pandemic, the indicator has recovered a few colors since, but without catching up with the level of 2019. Life expectancy for women in 2021 was 85.2 years and 79.3 years for men. In general, life expectancy has not progressed much in recent years, for several reasons:
- The Covid-19 epidemic, which has hit the elderly hard;
- Winter epidemics of seasonal influenza with significant mortality each winter except the two winters marked by Covid-19;
- The impact of the heat waves of previous summers.
If Covid-19 seems to have played a major role in mortality and life expectancy, has it also impacted fertility? The number of births has been falling continuously since 2010, and this trend has not been interrupted by the health crisis. Births fell sharply during the confinements to resume a more normal rhythm therefollowing. If some specialists had projected a baby boom in the months following the confinements, the situation turned out to be quite different.
Fertility and birth rates are stagnating in France
The Covid-19 crisis seems to have had a profound impact on French demography, at the two extreme ages of life, with more deaths among the elderly, and fewer births of children. And the resumption of a normal situation at the end of the health crisis does not seem complete. Each year, the gap between the number of births and the number of deaths is reduced, suggesting that soon a net population deficit.
After decades of demographic growth, France seems to be heading towards a plateau, then towards a decline in population, which might reach a reduction of 110,000 people by 2070. The arrival of the baby-boom generations to the retirement, uncertainties regarding the future (economic, political, ecological) are all factors capable of explaining the evolution of demographic indicators. The impact of infections and epidemics is also major, both Covid-19 exceptionally, but also more regularly each winter the seasonal flu.
Estelle B., Doctor of Pharmacy
Sources
