Bad harvest in Argentina: the drought of the century burns everything

Bad harvest in Argentina: the drought of the century burns everything

Olaf Zinke, AGRARHEUTE*

© stock.adobe.com/foto4440

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third largest exporter of maize. The country has suffered from the driest conditions for 60 years and the highest temperatures since the beginning of the 20^e century.

« Argentine agriculture suffers from an unprecedented climate crisis “, announced Wednesday the Argentine Grain Exchange of Rosario. According to the announcement, the country is suffering from the driest conditions for 60 years and the highest temperatures since the beginning of the 20^e century. The consequences for the soybean and maize harvests are catastrophic.

© Olaf Zinke

New estimates from the Rosario Stock Exchange put the current soybean harvest at just 27 million tonnes, well below the 34.5 million tonnes forecast last month.

Wednesday [8 mars 2023], Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange had lowered its forecast for the country’s 2022/23 soybean crop to a century low. Stock market experts have further warned of further cuts as the drought persists. Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third largest exporter of maize. In this context, the Grain Exchange’s harvest forecasts are even significantly lower than the estimates of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), already drastically reduced.

New estimates from the Rosario Stock Exchange put the current soybean crop at just 27 million tonnes, still less than the 34.5 million tonnes forecast last month. The worst harvest so far, that of the year 2000/01, of 27.5 million tonnes, would not be reached either. According to data from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, there was soybean production in 1999 of 20 million tons, but on an area slightly more than twice that forecast for this season, analysts report.

L’USDA also dramatically reduced Argentine corn and soybean production figures. In its monthly report, theUSDA only forecast the Argentine soybean crop at 33.00 million tons. This was 8 million tonnes less than the February forecast of 41.00 million tonnes.

The Rosario Stock Exchange also lowered its corn harvest forecast for this cycle to 35 million tonnes, below last month’s forecast of 42.5 million tonnes. I’USDA had lowered its estimate for Argentine production to 40 million tonnes, which was below trade forecast of 43.4 million tonnes and significantly lower than last month’s estimate of 47 million tonnes.

L’USDA estimates that potential maize exports from Argentina are down to just 6.5 million tonnes, down from 7.5 million tonnes expected the previous month and 16 million tonnes last year. In its report, the Rosario Stock Exchange also hinted that forecasts might drop further. The lingering drought is also impacting Argentina’s broader economy, which continues to contract, analysts say.

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* Olaf Zinke works for AGRICULTURAL TODAY as a cross-media editor for operations and markets. He has been analyzing national and international agricultural and commodity markets for three decades and has worked in this capacity for various institutions.

Source : Crop failure in Argentina – drought of the century burns everything | agrarheute.com