Moldovan President Maia Sandu, in office since 2020, is trying to break with the long tradition of oligarch influence and prepare the country for EU accession. This pro-European path displeases Russia. “Moscow has been trying for several years to establish a regime that is friendly to it,” Ryhr Nizhnikau, an expert on former Soviet Union countries at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told France24.
The reports of alleged Russian destabilization attempts are piling up. Only on Sunday did it become known that the Moldovan police had uncovered a Russian-controlled network that, according to the investigations, wanted to weaken Moldova’s stability. The EU has not yet commented on this. In February, Sandu warned of a planned coup by Russia. Moscow denied.
USA: Connections to Russian secret service
Last week, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, citing intelligence information, revealed that actors were attempting to stage protests in Moldova and use them as a basis for an uprising once morest the country’s pro-Western government. Some of these actors have ties to Russian intelligence.
The information spread by Russia that Ukraine is planning an invasion of the breakaway region of Transnistria is also false. That’s wrong, Kirby emphasized, and would “trigger an unfounded alarm.” The Moldovan government sees no “immediate military threat” from Russia, but sees other risks for the country’s security, for example from “hybrid warfare”. Russia is creating “disinformation, tensions within our society,” Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii said on Monday.
High dependency on Russia
For weeks, thousands of people have been taking to the streets, especially in the Moldovan capital Chisinau. They are demanding the dismissal of the pro-European government and support for the immensely increased energy costs. The country, which was described as the poorhouse of Europe even before the Ukraine war, is struggling with the effects of the Russian invasion in the neighboring country. Moldova is dependent on Russia economically, for example for gas, and geopolitically, for the unresolved Transnistria question.
Energy prices skyrocketed during the war as supplies from Russia were largely cut off. Power cuts are now part of everyday life, because Ukraine too had to stop supplying energy to other countries, and the support from Romania was not always sufficient.
Fee for participation in protest
The oligarch Shor plays with people’s dissatisfaction with the economic crisis and plays a key role in the protests. He is considered the financier of the demonstrations. Just a few weeks ago, it became known that Shor had posted several ads on Facebook to call for protests, even though he was on the US sanctions list for representing Russian interests. Although the postings were removed from Meta following some time, the entries were previously viewed millions of times.
Demonstrators have repeatedly openly admitted to journalists that they are paid to take part in the protests. Last week, the anti-corruption authority also found the equivalent of around 150,000 euros in “couriers” from the opposition Shor party. This should be “used for the transport and payment of people who come to the protests organized by the party,” the authority said, as reported by the AP news agency.
“Crisis Trigger”
“The Russians hope that it can at least serve as a trigger for a crisis,” said Nizhnikau. In fact, Moldova’s poor economic situation and high levels of poverty might play into Russia’s hands if the protest movement gains momentum as a result. Russia might then rely on “a network of officials and judges who have been corrupted over the years and who can overthrow power from within if Moscow asks them to do so,” the expert analyses.
The decisive factor is how much Shor can mobilize the dissatisfied. Observers also see the EU as being called upon to support the pro-European government once morest the attempts at destabilization.
Oligarch in exile in Israel
It is estimated that Shor’s fortune is several million euros. He owns several companies in Moldova and was mayor of Orhei north of Chisinau for four years from 2015. However, he now controls the anti-government campaigns from Israel in order to avoid imprisonment. He was convicted of embezzling almost a billion euros from several banks.
Nizhnikau is convinced that Shor does not pursue any ideology. He is a populist who “presents himself primarily as an anti-establishment in order to bundle dissatisfaction”. According to a Washington Post report, Moscow helped him take control of two television stations and supported his Shor party with political advisors.
Before Shor, Russia relied on Moldovan ex-president Igor Dodon, who was replaced by Sandu in 2020. When Dodon was discredited over corruption allegations, Moscow switched to the much younger Shor. This was shown by confidential documents from the Russian secret service FSB, which the Washington Post evaluated last fall.
Unrest around Transnistria
Pro-Russian tendencies have existed in Moldova for some time – particularly in the self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria. Under international law it belongs to Moldova, but is controlled by pro-Russian separatists. According to estimates, 10,000 to 15,000 paramilitaries loyal to Moscow live there, and Russia stationed up to 1,500 soldiers from its armed forces. Russia recently accused Moldova of planning an invasion of the region. Chisinau dismissed the accusation as “misinformation” creating panic and confusion.
When Prime Minister Dorin Recean, who took office in mid-February, called for the demilitarization of Transnistria and the withdrawal of Russian armed forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin annulled a decree from 2012 at the end of February, causing unrest. Because this had promised to solve the Transnistrian question peacefully while maintaining the “sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Moldova.
