This Thursday started the debt swap in which the Ministry of Economy will tender for $7.5 billion and which is expected 50% of that amount is rolledwhich sows the uncertainty of what will happen to the other $3.75 billion remaining in case they are not renewed.
On a day of great expectation, local assets suffered volatility although a positive climate is expected in equities. At this time the merval in dollars increases 0,5%; the opposite happens with fixed income, Aaffected by the international context, dollar papers fall impacting on the country risk that is located above 2,075 points.
The prices of financial dollars, which is where analysts fix their attentionincrease around 1%. The CCL is around $378 and the MEP is at $370. For its part, the parallel dollar is trading downwards ($2) and is selling at $376, in a very volatile market.
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“The market is waiting for what may happen. The movement of the blue is always very relative. Sometimes it goes up and down without much explanation because the volume is very small,” he explained. Pablo RepettoHead of Research at Aurum Valores, in statements to PROFILE.
“What is relevant is what happens with financial dollars and those have been with a lot of upward pressure for a few days ”. And Reppeto added: “At least we we are always more aware of what happens with the CCL / MEP more than the blue, which sooner or later should be arbitrated ”.
In the same vein, he expressed Andres Reschinianalyst in F2 financial solutionsin statements to this medium: “You have to look at all exchange rates, the blue dollar is a relatively small marginal market but with great power to influence the business climate. The MEP has increased 14.6% so far this year and the CCL around 12.5%while BLUE 8.7%.”
The exchange: a breath of air that is not enough
Despite the debt swap, Argentina’s macroeconomic situation continues to be very unstable. The meager reserves in the Banco Centralthe stock of pesos in the economy and a March that might be, due to the drought, the month with the fewest dollars since 2003, They do not bode well for a peaceful outlook.
“There may be some relief from the swap, but the currency gap (A3500 vs. CCL) closed last week at 88% and today we have it at 92-odd; that is, the exchange it is not enough for the market to improve its expectations regarding the economic course. In addition the drought is forcing to redo the numbers downward with each passing day”, said Reschini in this regard.
“When things go more or less well (as expected by the Government) the market corrects a little. But I don’t see substantial fixes, I don’t think the country risk will drop several points or that Argentina will return to the markets once more. There may be small movements, but there will continue to be a 90% or 100% gap,” said the economist. Diego Bossio in dialogue with PROFILE.
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“The situation will continue to be difficultespecially for the drought that it has taken dollars from the BCRA and that is a matter not less for the availability of foreign currency”, added Bossio.
“This exchange does not improve the general macroeconomic picture so much, although it does alleviate the issue of maturities that was a problem for the economy in general; since having maturities that cannot be paid Confidence soars, country risk rises, the dollar rises. So, expectations are moderately positive,” he said for his part. Ivan Carrinoof Iván Carrino and Associates.
“You will see a reasonable adherence and the end result is going to give the government a little more air regarding their debt maturities”, concluded Carrino.
LR
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