As the young people say, we are not going to lie to each other, 2023 will not be the year when all the difficulties of companies will fly away.
The sky should clear up. But not this year or at the very end. The departmental director of the Banque de France, Christian Delhomme, explains: “2022 has been a year of shocks and uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis. We are facing an inflationary surge in France and Europe. Defeating it is the first concern and our mission is to bring this inflation down to 2% by the end of 2024-2025 [elle est de 6% en ce moment, NDLR]. All this without slowing down growth – and risking a recession – thanks to the resilience of activity and employment.”
Inflation should remain at a high level this year, reaching 4% at the end of the last quarter.
Curl up until summer?
So of course the numbers are not very good. Industry, services, construction or trade, turnover, employment, supply, investment and recruitment, “the weather is stormy”blows the president of the CCI Nice Côte d’Azur, but “the turbulence should be temporary” tempers the departmental director of the Banque de France. Because some sectors have done well in 2022 and are stabilizing in this first quarter.
At the forefront is that of the HCRs (hotels-cafés-restaurants), which experienced a very favorable situation with a turnover up 20% compared to 2021 and +2.5% with regard to employment. Black point, 36% of business leaders surveyed by the CCI Nice Côte d’Azur are, for the time being, worried regarding their company, with the only concern being the maintenance of their margin.
In the room, at the announcement of these data, business leaders from industry and construction, impacted in the foreground by the situation, question: Christian Delhomme to enlighten: “The monetary policy put in place by the European Central Bank, in particular the decision to raise interest rates (1) last July, will have an impact. It takes 12 to 18 months before the effects are felt, it’s mathematical. Economic players also need to have confidence that inflation will go down.”
0.3% growth?
So a note of optimism. Indeed, despite the increase in the number of business failures (particularly VSEs), the bosses are fighting once morest the deterioration of their cash flow linked to energy costs, the debts accumulated since the COVID crisis, the difficulty in passing on their increases in cost price. Demonstrating agility and innovation to seize opportunities and maintain profitability is to be considered.
Growth forecasts are 0.3% for 2023 ( once morest 2.6% in 2022). “Obviously there can be good news,” ends Christian Delhomme for the Banque de France.
(1) The rates at which national and commercial banks lend money to individuals and businesses in the euro zone.
