PZ: The war in the Ukraine is similar to the situation in 1938: at that time the Sudeten regions were ceded, followed by Hitler’s occupation of the so-called remaining Czech Republic in 1939, despite the Munich Agreement. First the occupation of the Donbass by Putin, then the invasion of Ukraine. Many people in the Czech Republic and Prague have to think regarding that. Is this historical comparison appropriate?
Jan Kusber: I can well understand why this historical comparison comes to mind. It’s also regarding the question of whether a threat to world peace that emanated from National Socialist Germany at the time is now recognized and how to deal with it. And to the question of whether the policy of appeasement is the right way to answer: The invasion in March 1939 showed that this policy was wrong. From what is known so far, Putin’s war once morest Ukraine was planned well in advance. The West had no way of acting beforehand to stop him.
The Ukraine is a lot bigger than what was left of the Czech Republic back then, especially since Slovakia became a satellite state of Hitler soon following the invasion. Can Putin even occupy full-size Ukraine?
That would entail high costs for Putin. Economically as well as in terms of domestic politics. I don’t think he thought that through to the last detail. An occupation regime for the entire Ukraine is not feasible for Russia. That would have a lasting effect on the Russian domestic political scene. Opposition to the war is already becoming clearer from various quarters. From the fight of the brave Ukrainians once morest the invasion, it is already clear that Putin would have to reckon with a long-lasting resistance.
So what can Putin achieve?
It’s a question of which territories he wants to control directly or indirectly. From the military movements it can be deduced that he is primarily concerned with the so-called separatist areas, and he also wants to secure Crimea as a territory annexed since 2014. In the south, he and his troops can largely cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea. I assume that this is the least of territories he wants to liberate from Ukraine. And there he wants to establish a political system that can no longer maintain the clear course of Ukraine’s orientation towards the West and that will swing in the wake of Putin’s politics. But all of this also depends on the staying power of the Ukrainians and their president.
The Nazis threatened to destroy Prague if the Czechs did not surrender. Do you think that Putin will go to extremes and even threaten to use the atomic bomb if he does not achieve a military victory or does not achieve it quickly?
That’s a very difficult question. After putting the deterrence force on alert, the threat of nuclear war and the use of nuclear weapons has loomed large. However, it is not easy for Putin to trigger a nuclear strike. He does not do this alone, it is a multi-stage process. One can only hope that those with him in the chain of command will stop him. Otherwise we are all threatened, Europe and the whole world.
Militarily, Ukraine is clearly inferior. Like the Czechs did back then. Nevertheless, they were sometimes later accused of not putting up any military resistance, especially since their border was heavily fortified. From a historical perspective, would at least a symbolic resistance have made sense at the time?
That’s hard to judge in hindsight. One cannot say with certainty whether and that a development would then have been different. Defending once morest injustice with resistance, like now once morest Putin’s war in Ukraine, is certainly an important signal. To make it clear that this is regarding defending democratic values and the collective and individual freedoms that Putin is fighting in Ukraine.
The peaceful occupation brought military benefits to Hitler. What use does Putin have?
Its goal is to reunite all East Slavic areas of the Russian Empire. He does not want to restore the Soviet Union, but rather to tie in with the time of the Russian Empire before 1917. Belarus has already been integrated into the Russian sphere of influence as a quasi-satellite state. To his own surprise, resistance in Ukraine is massive. There are reports of captured Russian soldiers who expected to be greeted as liberators and were taken completely by surprise by the resistance.
The economic sanctions of the West are reminiscent of the Cold War with the aim of bleeding the Soviet Union dry financially in order to weaken it militarily and possibly also internally. Can this work?
These sanctions are working much harder and much faster than some expected. Obviously, above all, the measures once morest the banks. The citizens, especially in the large metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg, are used to a certain standard of living, and it hits them hard. It may also be a means of raising the tide of opposition there. The problem with these sanctions is that, in my estimation, Putin is relatively indifferent to the well-being of his citizens and his own state. Above all, he wants to achieve his imperial goals.
Czech ice hockey legend Dominik Hašek just demanded that all contracts with Russian players in the NHL be suspended. Does an extension of sanctions to all possible areas – like here on ice hockey – make sense at all?
You should take a close look at which areas you hit with it. In fact, people also have a high symbolic value – and sanctions once morest highly paid ice hockey stars can certainly be one of them.
Hitler’s invasion of 1939 came as a shock to the West following the Munich Agreement. Like now following the invasion of Ukraine. Do you think it is conceivable that NATO would still come to Ukraine’s military aid – if the humanitarian catastrophe becomes too great?
I do not believe that. In this case, NATO will always behave in such a way that it cannot be considered a party to the war. There are certain international legal regulations for this. She will avoid openly intervening in the conflict at all costs.
Another wave of refugees is expected. There are already many Ukrainians in the Czech Republic. So was the country wronged following it refused to take in refugees in 2015?
In the Czech Republic, as in Poland, it has always been difficult to distinguish between refugees from Ukraine, especially from the separatist areas, and people who work there and stay for a long time, going back and forth between their host country and their homeland can change. In this respect, I think the accusation once morest these states of not accepting any refugees in 2015 is correct. Now the situation is completely different, war refugees are actually coming and we have to take care of them. And the Czech Republic and Poland do that very comprehensively.
The invasion of Czechoslovakia was seen as an unmasking of Hitler as an unpredictable liar. Will Putin ever once more be a serious interlocutor for the West and the world?
He isn’t anymore. There is hardly any way for him to get out of this conflict face-saving. All the statements, including those made by the German foreign minister to the UN General Assembly, show that Putin can no longer be taken seriously as a partner because he can no longer be trusted. At best you have to look for ways out of the war with him – but with all caution.
The post „Wie 1938“ first appeared on Prager Zeitung.