The picture shows that on October 23, 2022, seven members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee, including Xi Jinping, appeared in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
[The Epoch Times, March 5, 2023](Reported by Epoch Times reporter Lin Yan) The CCP’s annual CPPCC and National People’s Congress “Two Sessions” started in Beijing on March 5 and March 4 respectively, and lasted for 8 days. The appointment of high-level personnel is the focus of most attention from the outside world. Although the division of labor among the highest-level Politburo Standing Committee members has been settled, there may still be uncertainties regarding the candidates for the State Councilor and top leaders in various departments.
Candidates for the position of State Councilor who concurrently serves as Minister of Public Security are still unclear. Some analysts say that there are three possibilities.
The following is an inventory of the “two sessions” observed by the American think tank Asia Society (Aisa Society).
The division of labor of the new members of the Standing Committee
Li Qiang, the former Shanghai party secretary, will be named premier following Xi Jinping promoted him to No. 2 on the Politburo Standing Committee in October 2022.
Ding Xuexiang, Xi’s long-term secretary and director of the Central Office, will become executive vice premier. The other three vice premiers are expected to be He Lifeng, Zhang Guoqing and Liu Guozhong.
The Asia Society said that neither Li Qiang nor Ding Xuexiang had any experience in the State Council system, which may indicate that the appointment of ministers will be more important.
Ding Xuexiang is likely to be in charge of the “day-to-day” operations of the State Council, as well as financial coordination and technical aspects.
Ding Xuexiang’s standing as executive vice premier looms large given Xi’s push for technological self-reliance, Ding’s early career in tech, and the latest rumors that he may lead a new central science and technology commission.
He Lifeng, director and secretary of the National Development and Reform Commission, will take over financial operations headed by Vice Premier Liu He. He is also widely expected to be party secretary of the People’s Bank of China. This would weaken the central bank’s independent monetary power and further align monetary policy with fiscal policy in line with party priorities.
Zhang Guoqing is likely to be in charge of business matters. Zhang’s background in the military-industrial complex may suggest that the Communist Party will increasingly rely on state guidance and industrial policy to manage the economy, but it may also be a signal of how newly promoted bureaucrats with military-industrial backgrounds will influence policy.
Meanwhile, Liu Guozhong is likely to be in charge of Vice Premier Hu Chunhua’s agriculture department and Sun Chunlan’s part of the health department.
There may be variables in the division of labor among state councilors
While the most important appointments to the Standing Committee have been made clear, there may still be surprises. In addition to the candidates for prime minister and vice premier, the five state councilors under the State Council system will also be replaced.
The Asia Society said General Lee Sang-bok was expected to serve as state councilor and defense minister. Li Shangfu was sanctioned by the United States in 2018 for illegally purchasing arms from Russia. This fact will make the task of furthering military-to-military relations between the United States and China even more difficult than it already is.
Chen Yiqin, the former party secretary of Guizhou province, is expected to become state councilor and the body’s only female representative. Given that she has spent her entire career in Guizhou, her promotion is unusual and might be interpreted as a CCP intention to promote a woman as a representative at the central level.
Wu Zhenglong, who previously worked with Li Qiang in Jiangsu, is expected to serve as State Councilor and Secretary-General of the State Council.
The new Foreign Minister Qin Gang is also expected to squeeze into the State Council. He has been promoted from a deputy ministerial-level cadre to a deputy state-level state leader in a few months.
There is currently no clear candidate for the last post of state councilor who also serves as minister of public security. There are several possibilities, Asia Society said.
Scenario 1: If the new institutional reform arrangements are not implemented, the current Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong will serve as the State Councilor in charge of domestic security.
Scenario 2: If Wang Xiaohong replaces Ding Xuexiang as the director of the Central Office, Chen Yixin, the current Secretary-General of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, may become the State Councilor. According to the latest news on the 3rd, Li Bai, deputy secretary-general of the Central Political and Legal Committee, was promoted to secretary-general of the Political and Legal Committee.
Scenario Three: If the NPC and CPPCC decide on a new institutional arrangement, then the position of the fifth State Councilor will be eliminated—and Wang Xiaohong will assume a new, more important position, responsible for overseeing China’s domestic security agencies.
Who will be the vice president?
Han Zheng, the current executive vice premier and the only retired Politburo Standing Committee member elected to the National People’s Congress, is expected to succeed Wang Qishan as vice president.
Asia Society said it was not clear that Xi would feel safe with Han Zheng, who has an equally powerful factional network as Wang Qishan, given that Xi has sidelined Wang Qishan, given his powerful factional network in the financial sector.
The General Office and Organization Department of the CCP are essentially the party’s human resources department, and there will also be high-level personnel changes. The candidate for the new director of the general office has not yet been determined, and Wang Xiaohong seems to be the only logical choice. If there is no institutional reform, you can refer to Scenario 2 above.
It is also unclear when Chen Xi, the current head of the Central Organization Department and a close ally of Mr. Xi, will step down from that post. The Asia Society said that it appeared that Li Ganjie, a member of the Politburo and secretary of the Central Secretariat, should succeed Chen Xi.
Appointment of top leaders in various departments
Development and Reform Commission (commonly known as the Small State Council): Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao (alliance with Li Qiang), Secretary of the Anhui Provincial Party Committee Zheng Shanjie (formerly worked with He Lifeng), etc. have the opportunity to sit on the post of director of the National Development and Reform Commission. This choice will further demonstrate how Li Qiang and He Lifeng will function within the State Council.
Finance minister: The new finance minister will have to deal with the precarious financial position of central and local governments in the wake of the pandemic and the ongoing real estate sector crisis.
Possible candidates include Ding Xuedong, executive deputy secretary-general of the State Council, Lu Zhiyuan, party secretary of Qingdao, and Cheng Lihua (female), deputy secretary of the Anhui provincial party committee.
Banking regulators: Among the candidates for the central bank and top regulators, it seems that Zhu Hexin, chairman of CITIC Group, is expected to be the governor of the central bank, and He Lifeng will be the secretary of the party committee, maintaining the current duopoly system.
Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is expected to be the new chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Wu Qing, executive vice mayor of Shanghai, is expected to be the next chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
The replacement of the top leaders of the two sessions
Zhao Leji, a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo and ranked third, will become the new chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
Former Tianjin Party Secretary and Politburo member Li Hongzhong is a popular candidate for first vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress.
Wang Huning is the fourth-ranked member of the Politburo Standing Committee. He will become the new chairman of the CPPCC National Committee and thus become the deputy head of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Work. Rumor has it that he has been commissioned by Xi Jinping to develop a new strategy for unifying Taiwan.
The current head of the United Front Work Department of the CPC Central Committee and Politburo member Shi Taifeng will become the first vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee. This may indicate the United Front Work Department’s rising importance.
An interesting new addition to the list of possible vice-presidents is Song Tao, who is currently the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council.
Song Tao’s possible promotion, as well as those of Wang Yi, Zhang Youxia, Shi Taifeng, and Ying Yong, all reflect Xi Jinping’s governance characteristics, where loyalty can break traditional promotion rules such as age restrictions and career trajectories.
The final question is, where will the marginalized Tuanpai members go? Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, President of the Supreme People’s Court Zhou Qiang and All-China Women’s Federation Chairman Shen Yueyue are among the “honorary” vice chairmen of the CPPCC.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#
