In a way, the war in Ukraine is only a secondary issue in international relations.
Of course, this war is terrible. It is one of the main causes of global inflation. It has caused a consolidation of alliances. And so on.
But this war also depends on the evolution of the management teams in China, Russia and the United States. The evolution of politics in these three countries is uncertain. This uncertainty weighs on decisions regarding Ukraine.
Warmongering or pacifist China?
In China, Xi Jinping must present the new ministers of his government these days. To what extent will he and his faction manage to impose their candidates? Will he succeed in countering the warmongering elements within his army?
For the moment, the Chinese newspapers spread a rather peaceful vision as much on Ukraine as on the rest of the world.
The more peaceful the tone, the more Chinese military ambitions in Taiwan seem to be put on hold, the more China becomes popular, including for Ukraine.
Conversely, a military hardening of China implies a hardening of alliances once morest it.
However, it appears that Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine without the military support of China. This support is far from obvious, even though trade between Russia and China has increased significantly over the past year.
More and more difficult for Russia
The war is becoming more difficult for Russia every day. Last Wednesday, the leader of the Wagner group, Evgueni Prigogine, once more denounced the lack of supplies for his troops as well as the incompetence of Russian officials. He even dared to claim that hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers had died in the conflict.
How long will the Russians remain engaged in this war which they can no longer win alone?
And above all, how long will Vladimir Putin’s regime last, when the time comes to explain the defeat to the people? Who will replace him?
The emergence in the coming years of a democratic and pro-European Russia is not a theoretical question. This is a real possibility, which from a military point of view is neither to the advantage of China nor of the United States. But in economic terms, everyone would win.
These Russian stakes go beyond those of the war in Ukraine.
Towards an extremist United States?
The United States faces what might be tumultuous years. The Republican Party has become so extremist that the election of a Republican president like Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis threatens to alienate traditional US allies.
The global influence of the United States would be diminished and the coalition that supports Ukraine would be weakened.
Leaders everywhere need to consider these possible political developments in China, Russia and the United States. In a way, the future decides the present.
