Russia following the 1 year war Missing opportunities to flourish as before By yearly inflation of Russia in Jan. at 12%, from 17.8%, the highest in two decades.
Russia following the 1 year war Missing opportunities to flourish as before By yearly inflation of Russia in Jan. at 12%, from 17.8%, the highest in two decades.
Analysts are of the opinion that The Russian economy can withstand the sanctions imposed by the West since its invasion of Ukraine a year ago, but it will take a long time to return to its former glory. This is mainly because the Moscow government spends a lot of its budget on the military.
The Russian National Statistical Office estimates the Russian economy will shrink by 2.1 percent in 2022, less than the domestic estimate. Shortly following Russia sent troops to Ukraine that The economy is likely to contract no less than 10%, but more than following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 1998 financial crisis.
“The 2.1% contraction in Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) was less than expected. And in line with the fourth-quarter expansion, it is further evidence that the economy is stabilizing. After initially being affected by sanctions in the second quarter, it is likely that the Russian economy remains weak. and there is resistance to strengthening activities Therefore, it is possible that it may take until the end of this year. before the Russian economy begins to recover sustainably,” commented Liam Peach of Calibration Economics.
This figure is better than the Russian Ministry of Economic Development. had predicted in September that The economy will shrink by 2.9% while the Russian Central Bank It is estimated that the country’s GDP will shrink by regarding 3%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects at the end of January that The Russian economy will contract by only 2.2% from a 3.4% contraction in the previous projection. And the Russian economy is expected to grow slightly positively in 2023.
While Russia’s annual inflation rate was stable in January. It was regarding 12 percent from a two-decade high of 17.8 percent in August when the first tranches of Western sanctions took effect.
In early Feb. central bank of russia Annual inflation is expected to drop to 5% to 7% this year and to 4% in 2024.
Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia It is expected that the economy will resume growth in the middle of this year. This year’s GDP is expected to shrink by 0.1% to grow by 1.0%.
Rising energy prices for trading partners offset the impact of Western sanctions aimed at isolating Russia. This, together with the import blockade, led Russia to record a record surplus in the current account. Meanwhile, capital controls pushed the Russian ruble to the highest level in seven years.
However, analysts are of the view that Russia lost quite a lot of opportunities and had a lasting impact. from the war in Ukraine that Russia called “Special military operations” because before the war. The Russian government estimates that the economy in 2022 will expand at 3% and that Russia may have to wait until 2025 for the economy to return to 2021 growth. happen within 10 years.
Moreover, Russia’s accelerating increase in its military budget by diverting funds from education and healthcare will certainly affect the development of its economic infrastructure. Russia increased its defense budget to 84 billion dollars.
As for other countries, the United States has allocated a military budget worth 773 billion dollars. An increase of $30.7 billion from 2022 That’s a 4.1% increase, split into the Air Force’s $56.5 billion upgrade budget. $40.8 billion in naval upgrades $12.6 billion for military modernization $130 billion in education and research for military development
China’s military budget is approaching $300 billion from $237 billion and $293 billion, respectively, while India’s defense budget is $76.6 billion.
United Kingdom Military budget allocated $68.4 billion, Taiwan increased defense budget by more than $13 billion, an increase of 12.9%, and Japan increased defense budget to $320 billion.
But if you consider this whole year The Russian economy is likely to change significantly because the latest on Friday (February 23) US President Joe Biden is preparing to announce additional sanctions on industries that support the Russian war in Ukraine. during an online meeting with the leaders of the G7 member countries
The G7 members include Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United States, Japan, as well as the European Union (EU). Japan, which is chairing the G7 this year, will host the meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the meeting.
Kyodo news agency reported that “Karine Jean-Pierre” White House spokesperson. It said the targets for the new round of sanctions included banks. ,Russian military industry and technology and other sectors in many countries trying to offset and avoid US sanctions.
