FanGraphs recently released their odds for the 2023 playoffs, and Atlanta Braves fans are going to love what they’re seeing.
With spring training drawing closer to the first exhibition games, FanGraphs released its 2023 Playoff Odds, giving Atlanta Braves fans a reason to be unbridled optimistic regarding the upcoming season.
According to FanGraphs, the Braves are expected to finish the 2023 season leading the NL East with a 94.6-67.4 record and a .584 winning percentage. That gives them a three-game advantage over the New York Mets (91.6-70.4).
Par FanGraphs As explained by founder David Appelman, they start with the Steamer and ZiPS projections, with playtime pro-rated from the depth charts. They then find each team’s winning percentage using a Pythagorean win-loss formula before running 20,000 simulations of the full 162-game schedule.
And there you have it… the chances of qualifying for the playoffs!
This process provides win and loss projections as well as the likelihood of teams winning their division, getting a bye, earning a wild card berth, making the playoffs, and winning the World Series.
Note: Probabilities and odds are not the same. The term “odds” is used here in an approximate manner. The numbers used represent the probability, or chance, of the results occurring.
What are the Atlanta Braves’ chances of making the playoffs?
Good news for Braves fans, as their team has a 92.4% chance of reaching the postseason, which is by far the highest of the major leagues.
The calculations give Atlanta a 56% chance of winning the division, with a 50.3% chance of getting a bye in the first round. Even if Atlanta’s season doesn’t go as planned, they still have a 36.4% chance of securing a Wild Card spot.
Here are the full playoff odds for the NL East:
Braves d’Atlanta – 92,4
Mets de New York – 84,1
Philadelphia Phillies – 55.5%.
Miami Marlins – 17.5
Washington Nationals – 0,1
Will the Atlanta Braves win the World Series?
According FanGraphsthe Braves have a 14.6% chance of winning the World Series this year.
This means that of the 20,000 simulations, the Braves have won the World Series 14.6% of the time. It’s not bad at all.
But which other teams will challenge Atlanta this year?
Behind the Braves are the San Diego Padres, with an 11.9% chance of winning the title, and the New York Yankees, with 10.5%. The Houston Astros and Mets round out the top 5 title contenders with 9.9% and 9.1%, respectively.
While Atlanta fans might start planning the parade route, we are still weeks away from the big games. Projections are fun, but remember whether or not players and teams exceed expectations every year.
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