Pyongyang’s muscle flexing is causing alarm in Seoul and Tokyo, where their own nuclear weapons programs are openly being considered.
North Korea is increasing the frequency of its missile tests: According to the South Korean military on Monday, there were two short-range missiles. The Japanese coast guard even registered three impacts within a few minutes. The regime had already fired a ballistic missile on Saturday that hit the sea in the target area west of Hokkaido, but might also have destroyed an airfield in Japan.
North Korea’s propaganda hailed the “successful surprise exercise” as “demonstrating the capability of a deadly nuclear retaliation strike.” Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida therefore wants to request an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Tests with such long-range ballistic missiles are forbidden to North Korea by UN resolutions because they are considered important carriers of nuclear weapons. But that needn’t worry dictator Kim Jong-un as long as the UN veto powers China and Russia block a sentencing of their ally.
Dummies or mega rockets?
The test on Saturday followingnoon shows a new quality. Allegedly, the Hwasong-15 was fired from a mobile ramp positioned at Pyongyang Airfield. Dictator Kim’s direct order is said to have been given only in the morning. The short time window indicates that this missile was powered by solid propellant. Such rockets are much more flexible in terms of deployment, as they do not need to be previously refueled with liquid fuel, which satellites would discover. And there is a risk of further escalation: the powerful dictator’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, said that the Pacific was increasingly being used as a “shooting range”.
Just last Wednesday, the dictator presented even more powerful projectiles at his nightly parade on Pyongyang’s square, named following his grandfather Kim Il-sung. Experts counted ten to twelve Hwasong-17 ICBMs, more than any public demonstration before. In the glaring headlights, even specialists find it difficult to tell whether all of these largest missiles in North Korea’s arsenal are airworthy or just dummies, but with their gigantic range they would not only pose a threat to neighboring South Korea, Japan and Hawaii, but might also pose a threat to the US -Meet mainland.
Reluctance because of China?
What is lost in the outrage over the provocative rocket launches is that North Korea is testing its military technology for reliability and shortcomings. Since 2022, Pyongyang has tested at least 73 ballistic missiles, 42 of them in the past four months alone. However, it is noteworthy that despite months of speculation, the regime has not dared to prove its nuclear capabilities through further tests – although the preparations for another nuclear test have probably long been completed.
It can be assumed that the restraint order came from China. Beijing fears Pyongyang will open Pandora’s box by resuming nuclear testing. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has publicly considered keeping the option of a nuclear weapons program open should the nuclear threat from the North escalate further. If Seoul were striving for nuclear weapons, Tokyo might follow: A nuclear arms race in East Asia then threatens.
More than 50 nuclear reactors
Because of the negative attitude of the Japanese population, Kishida has not yet commented on this. But its military officials are increasingly pointing out that Japan has the technological capability to do it — and fast. Japan has more than 50 nuclear reactors and is one of the few countries with highly developed space research. So far, Tokyo has relied on the US ally for nuclear protection, but there are enough political forces pushing for independence.
