“Taking advantage of supply and demand with strong earnings and unique small and medium-sized stocks!”
● The reason why the market does not rise is not “because overseas players sell”.
Where did that momentum in January go?
The Tokyo market in February continued to consolidate in a high price range just past the middle of the month. There are no surprising negative factors, but it is difficult to break out of the consolidation.
There are certainly reasons why it can’t go higher and higher. In Japan, the next president of the Bank of Japan has been decided, and in the United States, the economy is overheating and fears of a slowdown coexist.
I know it won’t be easy to break above, but there are some interesting data. Trading trends by investor (2 markets, spot stocks).
Since the beginning of the year, only business corporations have continued to buy Japanese stocks for six consecutive weeks, with a net purchase of 583.6 billion yen as of the second week of February. On the other hand, trust banks have been net sellers since the beginning of the year. Their net sales have reached 787.9 billion yen.
What regarding individuals? Net sales of 232.9 billion yen.
Let’s take a look at foreign investors. This is a net purchase of 688.7 billion yen.
What we can see from the above is that normally we tend to think that the reason why Japanese stocks do not rise is because foreign investors are selling them, but it turns out that this is not the case.
Currently, it is sold to domestic trust banks and individual investors. This is what happens.
How can this situation change? First of all, trust banks, which continue to be net sellers, must stop selling. What regarding this point? To be honest, it is difficult to predict exactly where the selling will stop or decline. Last year, they net sold ¥253.7 billion in January, bought ¥599.6 billion in February, sold ¥315.9 billion in March, and net ¥713.4 billion in April.
Although there is no guarantee that similar trading will be repeated this year, there is a possibility that the market will respond to the market from a selling point of view until April.
● What countermeasures should be taken in this situation?
As a result, we cannot expect much from the February-March market. It seems that this is the case, but there is a workaround.
We would like to prioritize investment in small and mid-cap stocks with strong earnings and unique business models, rather than large-cap stocks and major stocks that are mainly handled by trust banks.
Specifically, first <3741> [東証Ｐ]become. We are strong in advanced space technology and systems, and are working on the development of products and systems that can be used not only on earth, such as autonomous vehicles and robots, but also in space in the future, and become a dream company.
SATO HOLDINGS is strong in bar code printers <6287> [東証Ｐ]However, considering that the global economy is recovering, the demand for barcode printers in each country will remain strong for the next few years, or at least for a year or more. As you can see, the stock price is also promising.
Miroku Information Service, which has been sold recently but has stopped declining <9928> [東証Ｐ]The stock price is expected to revive from here. I don’t think the adjustment will continue as it is for stocks related to the invoice system that will be enforced from October this year.
Teikoku Denki Seisakusho is the leader in non-leakage pumps that are indispensable in chemical plants, although the products are unspectacular. <6333> [東証Ｐ]Stock prices are also rising moderately, albeit in a high price range, and are expected to continue growing at the same pace in the future.
And finally, let’s turn our attention to inbound-related stocks. After all, nearly 1.5 million foreign tourists came to Japan in January.The stock finally showed signs of bottoming out in the stock price Japan Airport Terminal <9706> [東証Ｐ]become. This company owns the Haneda Airport terminal building. Going forward, it is expected that the difficulties will gradually be overcome and earnings will increase.
February 17, 2023 diary
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