It is a paradox. In Brussels, the median price of houses and apartments is increasing but their real value is decreasing. In question, the very high inflation, explains the Federation of Belgian Notaries on the occasion of the presentation of its annual real estate barometer: +10% between 2021 and 2022 in Belgium. That is 3.5 points more than the increase in house prices (+6.5%) and 5.8 points more than the increase in apartment prices (+4.2%) over this same period.
Over the longer term, however, the rise in prices of residential real estate in Brussels remains higher than inflation. The median price of houses has increased by 28.9% in five years (2018-2022), that of apartments has climbed by 23.5%; while inflation posted, once more over five years, an increase of 15.4%. The Covid effect, according to the Federation of Notaries.
In Ixelles, house prices fell by 8.5%
It is well known that the residential real estate market in Brussels is very different from other regions. First, many more apartments are sold there than houses, which represent only 35.6% of the market, whereas in Flanders and Wallonia, house sales monopolize more than 70% of the residential market. Next, Brussels displays a very large disparity between its municipalities. The Federation of Belgian Notaries distinguishes three distinct zones.
To the west and northwest of the capital region – plus Evere – the median house price is the lowest, averaging around 430,000 euros. In the center of the region (Forest, Saint-Gilles, Schaerbeek, Saint-Josse – to which we can add Berchem-Sainte-Agathe and Ganshoren), this median price fluctuates between 410,000 and 569,000 euros. Finally, and unsurprisingly, the south-southeast of the region has the highest median prices.
The most significant changes concern Koekelberg (-3.2%), Jette (-0.5%) and Ixelles (-8.5%), the only Brussels municipalities to see house prices fall. Ganshoren (+15.9%), Berchem-Sainte-Agathe (+13.9%), Saint-Gilles (13.1) and Molenbeek-Saint-Jean (+12.9%) are the municipalities where the price of houses increased the most. Above inflation therefore.
Prices are expected to stabilize this year
Nevertheless, the price of houses in Brussels remains very high compared to neighboring regions. Woluwe-Saint-Pierre is the most expensive municipality in the country (725,000 euros, +6.6% without inflation) while Ixelles (675,000, -8.5% without inflation) and Uccle (670 000 euros, +3.9% without inflation) occupy 4th and 5th places respectively.
The evolution of apartment prices also differs from the situation in the other two regions of the country. On a regional level, the increase is less than at the national level (+4.2% in Brussels once morest 4.9% at the national level and 5.7% in Wallonia). This between 2021 and 2022. Over five years, on the other hand, the increase in the price of apartments in Brussels is the strongest: +23.5% once morest 22.1% in Belgium and 15.6% in Wallonia.
Tension on apartment buildings and houses in good condition but with low PEB
At a more local level, the Federation of Notaries notes that the west and north-west of the Brussels region have median prices below the national average (235,000 euros), between 175,000 and 215,000 euros. In Anderlecht and Ganshoren, this median price is even lower than 200,000 euros (see infographic). While apartments located along the north/south railway line have median prices above 260,000 euros, notes the Federation of Belgian Notaries. Finally, it is in Auderghem that the price of apartments has increased the most between 2021 and 2022: + 18.3%, i.e. 8.3 points more than inflation.
What are the prospects for this year? The Federation of Notaries displays measured optimism. “We believe that real estate activity – down 1.5% between 2021 and 2022, should remain at its current level as we see a likely stabilization in interest rates and that, according to the planning office, the inflation will probably be halved this year. “In terms of prices, here too the Federation of Notaries is betting on a certain stabilization in Brussels, for the same two reasons but also because purchasing power “might return to positive growth”. On the other hand, two types of property might suffer from the new Brussels urban planning rules: houses in good condition but with a low PEB and apartment buildings, due to the blocking of the indexation blocked for properties with PEB F and G, a measure implemented place until the end of the year by the Brussels government.