A year has passed since the Russo-Ukrainian War. The worst-case scenario previously predicted was a long-term war of attrition. In this war, major Western countries and Russia’s allies, such as China and Iran, are participating indirectly. The downside of this method is that as the war lasts for a long time, the donor countries have to suffer from severe internal injuries and followingeffects even if they do not receive physical shock. This war will go down in world history with these characteristics.
Last year, Russia’s strategic and tactical errors were so obvious that it was easy to predict. Those who are skeptical of history say that mankind has never made the same mistakes through the lessons of history. It’s a gloomy story, but last year’s Russia showed the essence. They even ignored the lessons of their World War II experience in that land.
This offensive is not easy to predict. First of all, the information on the power of both sides is too limited. The more difficult part is how much Russia has changed. A grand offensive in which tanks lead the way and a large army rushes through the plains requires a precise balance of air and ground, support, and logistics capabilities. However, 300,000 people seem like a great army, but 300,000 people cannot attack like this. If you don’t focus on the tactical goal here, and the attack is dispersed, the effect is even worse. The effectiveness of the blitz may seem victorious at first, but its war-continuity and sophistication will quickly degrade.
The anti-offensive is bluff, and if you focus on a specific tactical goal, you can show an advantage in the beginning. However, its tactical and logistical capabilities will remain immature. This ability can never be raised in a short period of time. If so, you have to push with firepower and human tactics, but this also quickly exhausts your ability to sustain war.
The most elusive is Russia’s strategic goal. Russian front-line commanders don’t seem to know either. Perhaps the goal right now is to go ahead with physical strength until the Western economy collapses and Western aid is cut off. If so, even if it is difficult to predict now, once the offensive begins, the situation will become easier to predict. The whole world will sigh in pain.
an appointed historian
