If counting roughly Until January The beginning of the new year 2023, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine It has been going on for more than 333 days since February 24, 2022, when Russia began a special military operation in Ukraine due to a territorial dispute. leading to international sanctions once morest Russia The result of this conflict remains a crisis that has affected global economies and trade until now and continues to show no signs of ending.
To understand the situation and update the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. To the global economy, and of course, this situation also affects the Thai economy. Preparing to deal with crises that may arise from now on therefore it is necessary
Today we would like to introduce an article on “333 Days Conflict, Russia and Ukraine” By Macroeconomic Research Division Office of Trade Policy and Strategy Ministry of Commerce Made in January 2023, let’s share to educate readers regarding this conflict situation.
developing conflicts Russia and Ukraine significant throughout the 333-day period
3 days before the fighting in Ukraine Russia declares independence of Luhansk and Donetsk regions Located in the Donbas region of Ukraine. which is an area of influence of pro-Russian separatists, following which the fighting began on February 24, 2022.
When Russia launched a military attack once morest Ukraine The reason was to maintain peace in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. and to protect stability from the expansion of western influence and NATO Western nations avoid military confrontation with Russia. In the first three months of hostilities, the two sides made several attempts to negotiate a peace. with Turkey as a medium But negotiations have been suspended since May 2022.
It was during this period that Russia occupied Mariupol, a major port and shipping hub on the Black Sea. As a result, Ukrainian cargo out of Black Sea ports was blocked. It was at the same time that Finland and Sweden announced their abandonment of military neutrality by signing up for membership. NATO
However, in late July 2022, there was an important positive progress, namely, Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative Agreement, with Turkey and the United Nations as mediators. to allow Ukraine to export grain and other agricultural products through the Black Sea
On the one hand, conflicts between Russia and Europe in the field of energy are increasingly tense. Because Russia stoppedsupply natural gas through pipes Nord Stream 1 which is the main channel for gas delivery to Europe By reasoning that the result ofWestern sanctions have prevented Russia from returning critical equipment to the pipeline for maintenance. with the condition that gas will not be delivered until the sanctions are lifted
And shortly therefollowing, Russia attacked Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Until causing concern regarding the occurrence of nuclear war The conflict situation escalated to another level in September 2022 following Russia ordered to mobilize more than 300,000 reserves for the first time since World War II to participate in the fight in ukraine
Until September 30, 2022, Russia announced the annexation of 4 regions of Ukraine into Russia, namely Donetsk.Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia While Western nations did not accept the annexation of the territory. and on the same day UkraineRussia retaliated by submitting a request to join NATO, which goes once morest the terms of the ceasefire that Russia had proposed in the 1970s.peace talks
Shortly therefollowing, a bomb exploded on the Crimea Bridge, which the Russians accused. It’s the handiwork of the Ukrainian side. which led Russia to use it as an excuse to suspend the deal Black Sea Grain Initiative Temporarily, but during November 2022, an agreement was agreed to extend the enforcement period until March 2023.
During the months of Nov. – Dec. ’22 until now The fighting tends to protract and become progressively more violent. After Russia stepped up its military operations by attacking more than 50% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine insisted that it would not negotiate until Russia withdrew its troops. and recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
while allied nations NATO pledged to supply weapons and provide military support in the fight once morest Russia to the end. On the Russian side, a large military cooperation agreement with Belarus was signed in early January 2023, reflecting that the conflict situation is unlikely to end soon.
3 Major economic sanctions by major nations around the world.
The Western coalition, led by the United States, the European Union (EU) and the G7, has imposed one of the most comprehensive and severe economic sanctions ever. It hopes to put heavy pressure on the Russian economy. to pressure Russia to stop fighting Or to use as a bargaining tool in negotiating boycotts in finance, banking, investment such as
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Cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system
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Freeze of reserves of the Central Bank and financial institutions of Russia. The ban on further investments in Russia
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Energy sanctions such as the US, UK Canada bans all Russian oil and gas imports
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EU suspends coal imports Suspend the import of crude oil from Russia by sea.
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The import of oil products from Russia has been banned since Feb. 2023. The EU G7 and Australia have implemented measures to cap the price of crude oil imported from Russia at $60 per barrel.
The boycott of trade in goods and services such as Restrict exports of goods related to Russian economic and military sectors such as electronics and advanced technology. telecommunication equipment Machinery, chemicals, gold and gold products It is forbidden to import luxury goods from Russia. and suspend cargo services to Russia
Russia, on the other hand, responded to Western sanctions. By announcing a list of 48 countries that are hostile to the sanctions once morest Russia to impose specific measures.
for example, prohibiting the export of more than 200 types of products such as telecommunication medical vehicles, agriculture and electronic instruments. Prohibition of Russian banks from dealing with shares or share transfers Requiring Russian companies to pay foreign debt in rubles The sale of shares in banks and businesses of strategic importance to Russia is prohibited. as well as a ban on exports of oil to countries that have joined the Russian oil ceiling.
3 Crisis affecting the global economy
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food crisis
Aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict This affects the global food production supply chain and causes food prices to rise considerably as supply decreases. Because Russia and Ukraine, which are the world’s largest producers and exporters of many grains such as wheat, corn, sunflower seeds. and barley The export of these products to the world market has declined.
In addition, prices of fertilizers and agricultural chemicals have increased. Because Russia is the world’s largest exporter of raw materials for chemical fertilizers. causing the production cost of agricultural products and processed agricultural products including various food products Prices go up accordingly.
Moreover Concerned regarding food shortages, more than 30 countries have announced halts on exports to ensure national food security. record, with a 14.3% increase from the previous year.
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energy crisis
Limiting Russian energy imports in line with Western sanctions on Russia As a result, oil prices in the world market rose. Due to concerns that the conflict will affect the supply. of global oil production Because Russia is a major exporter of crude oil in the world. It is also the country that exports the most natural gas in the world.
The price of oil and natural gas increased rapidly. It directly affects the cost of fuel used in the conversion to electricity, the transportation sector, and the manufacturing sector of other goods. using fuel as raw material In addition, it indirectly affects through production costs and transportation costs. push up the prices of various commodities to increase
In addition, Russia has suspended natural gas exports to Europe. As a result, European countries, most of which depend on Russian gas, are at risk of energy shortages. The World Bank reported a 60% increase in global energy prices in 2022, with crude oil prices up 40.6% and gas prices rising 40.6%. natural, up to 65.4%
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The Inflation Crisis and the Cost of Living
Protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict This drives inflation to a record high. through energy and food prices causing the cost of goods and services to increase rapidly until affecting the cost of living and purchasing power of the people
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global average inflation to increase from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022. As inflation increases in many countries, countries are required to tighten monetary policy. to control inflation With continuous policy interest rate hikes This resulted in a slowdown in investment in the manufacturing sector and a reduction in consumer spending and led to a slowdown in the global economy.
Russian-Ukrainian Crisis drags on global economy
Over the past 333 days since Russia’s military deployment in Ukraine, It is undeniable that this crisis is the worst negative factor affecting the global economy in 2022 and has continued to affect until now.
The World Bank estimates that the global economy in 2022 will expand by 2.9%, which is a sharp slowdown from a 5.9% expansion in 2021 and lower than the 4.1% forecast earlier in the year before the crisis in Ukraine. will enter into a more pronounced slowdown Indicated by the PMI index. The global manufacturing sector until December 2022 slowed for the eighth consecutive month and was in a contraction for four consecutive months.
And in line with the latest forecast by the World Bank that the global economy in 2023 It will grow by only 1.7%, which is the lowest growth rate in more than 30 years if not counting the global financial crisis in 2009 and the year 2020 that caused the COVID-19 crisis. while world trade to expand only 1.6%
The more pronounced global economic slowdown at the end of 2022 began to show its impact on the economies of countries with a high proportion of external dependency. or rely heavily on exports For example, Thailand, where merchandise exports contracted for the first time in 20 months, continued to shrink in October and November.
Like other countries in the region, exports tend to slow down. and as long as the crisis Russia and Ukraine continue This would be a major risk to further depress the slowing global economy and trade. and will affect the recovery path of the Thai economy As a country highly dependent on foreign sectors
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