The 49ers host the Eagles at 9 p.m. Sunday. The Chiefs meet the Bengals at 12:30 a.m. The Super Bowl LVII matchup will be decided today.
Hammer NFL cracker
Sunday is the end of fun for some teams. The Bengals haven’t lost a game since Oct. 31, the 49ers are undefeated since Oct. 23, and Cincinnati is the only team to beat the Chiefs since Oct. 16.
The combined record of this trio since the beginning of November is 31-1. The Eagles have an 8-1 record in that span and a 15-1 record overall if Jalen Hurts is the starting player. Measured by expected points per game, four of the top five offenses and three of the top seven defenses in the NFL are represented in the conference championship game.
The repeat conference finalists — the Chiefs, Bengals and 49ers — all have higher point differentials than last season. The Eagles are stronger on both sides of the ball than the 2021 Rams, the reigning Super Bowl champion. No group of finalists since 2018 has a higher point spread (overall) than this group (up-529).
The 2016 Patriots were the last Super Bowl champion to end the postseason on a double-digit winning streak. The record of this century comes from the Patriots in 2003, whose 15 straight wins culminated in a title. If the momentum holds, the Bengals and 49ers might meet in Arizona in a couple of weeks and continue their winning streaks of 11 and 13, respectively.
Cincy D vs. Mahomes
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The Bengals have won all three games once morest the Chiefs since Joe Burrow joined the team in 2020. All three wins came from a field goal. They twice intercepted Patrick Mahomes in last January’s AFC Championship Game and silenced the MVP favorite once more in Week 13 (Mahomes had 16 of 27 for 223 yards and a touchdown, well below his usual performance).
Cincinnati needed some time to get going in last year’s AFC Championship Game. Trailing 21-3 late in the second quarter, Mahomes was sacked four times and had a measly 55 passing yards in the second half and overtime.
The Bengals barely blitzed. They had eight men take cover to cover Mahome’s objectives as best as he might, even if he was stalling. Occasionally they would use a Spy to slow his movements. Defensive tackle BJ Hill and safety Jessie Bates made athletic plays to deflect passes.
Will the Bengals, who rank 22nd in frequency of blitzes, take a different route and try to put him under pressure? Or will they shut down the defensive backfield and stick with what worked at Arrowhead Stadium a year ago, knowing Mahomes is now less mobile with his sprained right ankle?
QBs face adversity
Mahomes isn’t the only quarterback struggling with some kind of limitation. Burrow’s offensive line is decimated, Hurt’s sprained throwing shoulder still plagues him, and Brock Purdy’s NFL experience is comparatively limited.
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These burdens have not yet overwhelmed them. Mahomes and Burrow have finally replaced Josh Allen as the top dogs in the AFC. In the NFC, the exceptional player of the season meets the rookie from the seventh round, who has never lost as a starter.
Hurts fired up fire in the divisional round once morest the Giants, scoring seven of his 16 completions on the first-quarter scoring drives that set up Philadelphia’s win. Purdy’s scoreless run once morest the Cowboys ended his seven-game streak of multiple touchdown passes. But he didn’t give up the ball once morest the league’s best takeaway defense, and he helped orchestrate the Niners’ 91-yard go-ahead TD drive.
With an average age of 25 years and 98 days, Sunday’s quarterbacks will become the youngest quartet to compete in the Conference Championships, according to the NFL.
They’re a confident bunch, especially Burrow. In Buffalo, he led five 60-yard scoring drives and didn’t throw a pick for the third straight game despite missing three O-Line regulars, all of whom remain injured. As Burrow said, Cincinnati’s Super Bowl window is wide open.
Feed the RBs, TEs
The four remaining offenses love to use their running backs and tight ends. These players are the engine of playoff wins.
Eagles running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders combined for 202 yards on 29 carries in the divisional round. Philadelphia’s quadruple ground attack has consistently misled the Giants, giving Gainwell, Hurts and Boston Scott a touchdown each.
Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown once morest the Bills. The Jaguars rushed Chiefs rookie Isiah Pacheco for 95 yards on just 12 carries. Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne rushed for 109 yards in the wild card round once morest the Chargers. Christian McCaffrey, the league’s top midseason acquisition, had 119 yards to help the Niners crush the Seahawks in their playoff opener.
Overall, tight ends eclipse wideouts in the passing game. Tight ends rank first through five in PFF’s receiver ratings this postseason and occupy eight places in the top 20. Overall, Kansas City’s Travis Kelce, Cincinnati’s Hayden Hurst, Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert and San Francisco’s George Kittle caught 85.4 % of passports intended for them (35 out of 41).
Last weekend alone, Goedert was able to turn and score with a one-handed catch in the red zone. Kittle’s skillful juggling grip in midfield initiated the 49ers’ game-winning drive. Hurst’s stylish hurdle for a first down extended a Bengals drive and Kelce’s appeal deflected a safety from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who broke up and caught Mahome’s one-footed pass in the back endzone.
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Kelce rushed for 98 yards and scored twice himself, repeatedly overrunning the Jaguars on short routes. The Bengals will pose an even greater challenge when he plays on Sunday (Kelce is doubtful with a back injury). Cincinnati ranked fifth once morest tight ends this season, while Jacksonville was 32nd.
Battle of the Defenses
In the game between the Eagles and the 49ers, either team might put the opponent in their place. These defenses have conceded the fewest yards per game in the league this season. Both rank in the top five for takeaways.
The Niners conceded the most goals and had 20 interceptions in the NFL, nine of them by safety duo Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga. The Eagles’ pass rushers threatened the quarterback and tied for third place in NFL history with 70 sacks.
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Playmakers exist at all levels in this matchup. Nick Bosa was the NFL champion with 18.5 sacks, but four Eagles reached double digits. TJ Edwards was among the top six linebackers along with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Eagles safety CJ Gardner-Johnson caught six passes in five games. Cornerback James Bradberry, like Hufanga, is a first-time All Pro. Which of them will shine on Sunday?
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