If “the coming year will remain difficult (…), it might also be a turning point”, before a rebound in growth in 2024, and while inflation “slows down”, indicates the chief economist of the IMF.
The world economy is resisting repeated shocks better than expected and the IMF has raised its growth forecast for 2023, the specter of recession receding for several countries while the reopening of China gives hope for an additional rebound.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects global growth of 2.9% in 2023, according to its report published on Monday. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than he expected in October, when he released his previous forecast.
“The outlook is less gloomy than in our October forecasts,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas during a conference call.
“The coming year will remain difficult,” he warned, but “it might also be a turning point” on the fronts of growth and inflation, said the economist.
The IMF no longer fears a recession in Germany
The slowdown looks less significant than expected in several developed economies, particularly in the United States (1.4% growth in 2023, 0.4 percentage point more than in October).
But also in Germany or Italy, where the IMF no longer fears a recession, contrary to what it predicted in October. Growth in the euro zone, which is holding up better than expected to the energy crisis linked to the conflict in Ukraine, is thus expected at 0.7%, or 0.2 points more than before.
The other important factor is the reopening of China following the abandonment of the zero-Covid policy. Despite the chaotic management that has led to a sharp rise in Covid cases in the country, this reopening should allow Chinese growth (+5.2% once morest 4.4% forecast three months ago) to come and give a boost. accelerator to the global economy.
Slightly higher inflation
In addition, inflation, which has climbed to very high levels around the world, is now slowing down, and should be lower in 2023 than in 2022 in the majority of countries, notes the IMF in its report.
The Washington institution, however, sees it a little higher this year than it had previously forecast, at 6.6% once morest 6.5% forecast in October. But it should return in 2024 to levels lower than 2021 (+4.3% once morest +4.7%).
These figures are more optimistic than those published in mid-January by the World Bank, which saw global growth slow down further. But that was before the announcement of the end of the massive containment measures once morest Covid-19 in China. The parameters taken into account by the two institutions are also different.
