The Economist Carlos Melconian estimated that the inflation it will not be able to stay low and he considered that it will be the “great challenge” facing the next presidential elections.
“It is one thing that you have a month at 3% and another is a plateau“, he pointed out in statements to Radio Miterwhen asked if he saw a sustained drop in the cost of living as possible.
“That would be more than a miracle“said the economist, explaining that” by chance there may be a month where it drops seasonally.
Carlos Melconian warned that Argentina should avoid “hot money”
Along these lines, he explained that “in 12 months there is seasonality; July and December, for example, are seasonally high months where increases occur due to vacations, bonuses, hotels, services; in March, for classes. While February and September they are quiet months. Suddenly, there are some months that seasonality plays in favor, but plateau no, no way“, answered Melconian regarding the evolution of the index.
Melconian’s harsh forecast on inflation
For the economist, it is key that the government can control inflation if it wants to have hope for the October elections.
“Lowering inflation is popular. The few successful programs, in the longer term or in the short term, the Austral and Convertibility, win elections. That is what does not enter my head. The politician who lowers inflation stays eight years safe“, he indicated.
Regarding the social reality in the face of inflation, he stated that “The people have no escape mechanism, they always lose. There’s no chance.”
Regarding the real possibilities that the Government will control it or obtain a bit of stability given the current situation, he indicated that “by lowering inflation monthly to what in other countries of the world is inflation for one year, it can give hope for the next Government”.
Although he warned that it will be difficult, and it is possible that the index is “above the current level, due to the impact of the increase in meat and the drought.”
Carlos Melconian: “Until five months ago the Government was a club that did not get together 11 to play a game”
Regarding the sayings of Pope Francisco and the president’s response Alberto Fernandezdid not want to get into controversy and warned that “responding professionally, and depersonalizing who said what”, if someone said that “this did not happen in the time of Perón, because there is no historical series”, for which it cannot be proven, and opined that they are “more politically tinged discussions that people pass by“.
“I went more than once with great pleasure to the Social Pastoral. I have never found a series of poverty of more than 40 years. In the UCA observatory there are no homogeneous series either, it happens with the EPH and with unemployment,” he said.
In the midst of these discussions, Melconian warned that “macroeconomic instability continues and purchasing power continues to erode.”
ED
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