Defeating Ukraine will lead to decades of guerrilla warfare
(Financial Times, January 17, 2023)
“Don’t think Russia is over”
That’s a word of caution muttered by a European diplomat who has been in Moscow for a long time. That’s a valid point.
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine went horribly wrong.
But Russia is still a huge country with abundant resources and a ruthless and brutal government.
Ukrainian intelligence services believe additional recruitment efforts might allow Russia to field a total of 2 million troops in a new offensive later this year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned that Russian forces may soon launch a new offensive to seize the capital Kyiv.
But even a breakthrough on the battlefield might not bring Russia a lasting victory.
Imagine Putin’s army performing an evil miracle, overthrowing Ukraine and overthrowing the Zelensky regime. What happens following that?
As for reality, a scarred and isolated Russia would then be stuck in decades of guerrilla warfare that would seem like a picnic in Afghanistan.
Either the occupying forces or the Kyiv puppet regime will come under constant attack. A “victory” would trap Russia in a long-term disaster.
It’s different from past defensive battles
Putin and his allies continue to take comfort from history.
Russia suffered a devastating defeat at the hands of Napoleon and Hitler–but in the end it won.
But these wars were defensive wars. Knowing that there was nowhere to retreat, the Russians fought to the very end.
This time, it is the Ukrainians who are defending their homeland.
