By 2050, 70 percent of the world’s population will live in cities, up from 54 percent in 2020, according to a new report. This result is brought regarding by population growth and the shift towards urbanization. The number of “megacities” – or settlements with a population of 10 million or more – also seems to be increasing, and India is very close to dethroning China.
Why do people prefer to move to big cities?
The IEP lists the most decisive factors that specifically encourage people living in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to migrate from rural areas. This includes general lack of policing and security, excessive violence and the presence of criminal gangs, ecological deterioration, and the fact that there are simply too many people for the available agricultural land. In addition, for many, the most attractive temptation may be the idea of an increase in the standard of living.
Accordingly, urbanization is very common in developed countries, but mainly in developing countries. More and more people tend to move closer to cities in order to have access to more “privileged” social and economic services and benefits. These include social and economic benefits such as better education, health care, sanitation, housing, business opportunities and better transportation.
Population of metropolises today VS in the future
At the moment, 33 settlements belong to megacities. Starting with the most populous, the list leaders are:
- Tokyo (37.3 million),
- Delhi (32.3 million),
- Shanghai (28.7 million),
- Dhaka (22.6 million),
- São Paulo (22.5 million).
By 2050, the list is expected to expand by 14 metropolises. Their total population is expected to increase by around 213 million. The new order is then:
- Delhi (49.6 million),
- Dhaka (34.6 million),
- Tokyo (32.6 million),
- Cairo (32.6 million)
- Mumbai (32.4 million).
The full list of metropolises includes the following cities:
Delhi, Dhaka, Cairo, Tokyo, Mumbai, Shanghai, Kinshasa, Lagos, Karachi, Mexico City, São Paulo, Beijing, Kolkata, New York City, Manila, Lahore, Bangalore, Chongqing, Buenos Aires, Osaka, Hyderabad, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, Bangkok, Jakarta, Shenzhen, Lima, Paris and Moscow.
Growing population -> growing GDP?
In addition to population growth, the population will experience economic growth in the affected cities, as well as in the countries hosting them. According to AXA, in Manila, Philippines and Bangalore, India nearly 150 percent GDP growth by the end of the decade expected.
Meanwhile, the population of only three megacities will experience a decrease. This includes the capital of Russia, Moscow (-3 percent), Osaka (-12 percent), and the Japanese capital, Tokyo (-12 percent). However, despite the shrinking caused by an aging population and a declining birth rate, Tokyo will still hold the top spot in 2050 and become the fourth most populous megacity in the world.
Between 2020 and 2100, Africa’s population is expected to grow from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion
Taking a bigger jump in time, The Pew Research Center according to Africa is the only world region where population growth is still expected to be strong by the end of the century, while all other regions will see their growth rates decline.
These are just predictions, so don’t take them for granted
It is important to note that different sources cite different statistics and that the situation may vary, especially in the case of forecasts. For example, the UN originally predicted that India would overtake China in terms of population in 2027. However, according to the current situation, this is already the case this April may occur. As for megacity status, according to UN data from 2018, several more cities, including Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur and China’s Wuhan, will be added to the list by 2035.
