The repeated update delays of fuel taxes by the national government were not free and in 2022 the State stopped collecting almost 1,800 million dollars. There is currently a delay of six quarters that might be coupled to the first of 2023, if the same strategy is maintained.
To put it in context, the figure is equivalent to almost the same as the second stage of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline. But as if that were not enough, not updating the taxes for the first quarter of this year would add another 600 million dollars to the account.
The Tax on Liquid Fuels (ICL) and the Tax on Carbon Dioxide (IDC) were to be updated as of January 1, however, on the last business day of December the government announced the postponement until April 1, 2023. In this way, the end of the first quarter of the year would be reached with 7 accumulated quarters without applying (see below).
The data comes from the Ministry of Energy and the amounts of the ICL and IDC published by the Federal Agency of Public Taxes. They were compiled in a report by the specialized consulting firm for the sector, Economy and Energy (E&E).
- US$ 600
- million is what the State will lose from collecting during the first quarter for not updating taxes.
“The non-updating of the ICL and CO2 rates will determine a loss of fiscal resources of approximately US$1,800 during 2022 and US$600 during the first quarter of 2023”, they pointed out from the consultant.
Why are taxes deferred?
Deferrals of fuel taxes Their main objective is to avoid an increase in the price of fuels.. In general, every time the State increases the tax burden on pumps, the producers transfer it to the final price paid by consumers.
With which, through these measures, The government seeks to take pressure off the producers that are conditioned due to the price of oil, the devaluation and increases in biofuels (mandatory) for mixing with gasoline and diesel.
This strategy is nothing more than bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. And the current scenario not only reveals this, but also highlights the need to modify a regulation that the administration of Alberto Fernández did not respect, nor that of Mauricio Macri.
What is the delay and what does the regulation say?
According to the last postponement (decree 864/22), on April 1, the six quarters in arrears must be applied, plus that of the first quarter of 2023. The last 2 quarters of 2021 and the four of 2022 are pending.
In accordance with current regulations, which have been in force since 2017, fuel taxes must be updated quarterly, in line with the variations registered by the Nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Taking this into account, the percentages to be applied per quarter would be as follows: 9.3% and 10.2% (third and fourth quarter of 2021) and 16,1 y 17,3% (first and second of 2022) and, that of the last quarters of last year, 22%; y 18,6% (the latter approximate).
The scheduled increases in gasoline
Despite tax postponements, fuels continued to increase in recent months and there are still at least two scheduled increases.
In November of last year, the government agreed with the fuel producers on staggered increases for gasoline and diesel until March of this year.
As reported, the country average of increases was 4% for December, January and February, and 3.8% for March. However, in the region the increases were higher, mainly the highest quality products and this month they were close to 7%.
- 4%
- is the increase in fuels that will be applied in February and that of March will be 3.8%.
With which, the expectation for the two remaining increases is that they will be higher than reported, although it is not yet confirmed, as is the day to apply the increases.
Although the last price increase is set for March, if the government decides to unfreeze fuel taxes in April, it is likely that the producers will pass it on to consumers, although in an election year a price freeze scenario would not be unreasonable. generally.
Naphtha and diesel should increase 137% in April
The postponement of the application of fuel taxes generates an accumulated backlog that is difficult to reverse and is that, when the government applies them, it does so in installments, with which the coming quarters are conditioned and thus a snowball is generated. . If all the backward quarters are applied in April, gasoline and diesel should increase up to 137%.
If they take effect all together, it would generate an increase in the prices of the pumps that would be unprecedented. This is why it is most likely that while the taxes owed from 2021 are applied, those from this year will accumulate.
To take into account, as analyzed by the consulting firm E&E, fuel taxes today represent close to $27.7 per liter, in the case of gasoline, and $17.9 per liter, in the case of diesel.
If the delayed tax burden is applied, which today is six quarters, in April of this year, the taxes should represent $65.7 per liter in gasoline and $42.5 in diesel. That is, a jump of 137% in both cases.
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