New York (awp/afp) – The dollar fell once more on Thursday, weighed down by traders who see inflation slowing, economic activity deteriorating and no longer believing in the offensive tone of the members of the American central bank (Fed) , who claim to want to stay the course of monetary tightening.
Around 9:15 p.m. GMT, the euro nibbled 0.32% once morest the greenback, at 1.0829 dollars for one euro. The pound advanced in the same proportions, at 1.2388 dollars per pound.
After falling early Wednesday to its lowest level since April once morest the single currency, at 1.0887, the “greenback”, one of the nicknames of the dollar, had recovered at the end of the day thanks to a movement of risk aversion.
But he backtracked once more on Thursday.
“Weakening macro data might precipitate the end of the greenback-friendly rate hike cycle,” argued Convera’s Joe Manimbo.
The manufacturing activity index in the Philadelphia region released on Thursday showed a contraction in January (-8.9 points), although less than expected and lower than that of December (-13.7 points).
The figure followed that of industrial production, published on Wednesday, which fell more than expected in December (-0.7%), and retail sales, also down more marked than expected by economists.
At the same time, the members of the American central bank (Fed) continue to plead for further rate hikes, even if more moderate than last year, and warn that they will remain high at least until 2024.
On Thursday, Boston branch president Susan Collins made the same speech, saying the key rate should go “just above 5%” from a range between 4.25 and 4.50% currently.
The day before, the president of the Philadelphia Fed, Patrick Harker, and that of the antenna of St. Louis, James Bullard, had also said they were in favor of a key rate beyond 5%.
“Monetary policy is going to have to be tight enough for long enough to make sure inflation gets back to 2%,” Fed Vice-Chair Lael Brainard commented on Thursday.
“They can gesticulate and raise their voices, the market is out of step in terms of monetary policy expectations,” says Mazen Issa of TD Securities.
The operators thus attribute a two-thirds probability to the scenario of a rate not exceeding 5% by June and also see, as a central hypothesis, one or more drops by the end of 2023.
“It will take time for the market to revise its estimates,” warns the analyst. “It was easier to have an offensive speech that carried when inflation kept accelerating, rather than today when we seem to have crossed a course” with a continuous slowdown in the rise in prices.
Cours de jeudi Cours de mercredi
21H20 GMT 22H00 GMT
EUR/USD 1,0829 1,0794
EUR/JPY 139,05 139,14
EUR/CHF 0,9914 0,9890
EUR/GBP 0,8741 0,8742
USD/JPY 128,40 128,90
USD/CHF 0,9155 0,9163
GBP/USD 1,2388 1,2348
afp/rp
