If you’re anything like me, you’ll recognize yourself in this description: you really like basketball in general, you even adore it, but you follow the NBA a little more than the NCAA over the whole of a season. And when March Madness knocks on our door year following year in mid-March, you have a sudden urge to take an interest in it given the enthusiasm that is sweeping our neighbors to the south.
I have therefore done the homework for you in order to offer you a complete survival guide in view of the launch of hostilities on Thursday, March 15 at noon. (I know…the first “official” matches are on Tuesday and Wednesday. But for me, the serious stuff starts on Thursday.)
To fill your poolplease keep in mind…
That historical stats are not to be blindly adhered to, but I would still suggest that you take note of long-term trends when it comes to teams that may cause upsets. It’s always relevant when it comes time to fill one’s bracket annual. For example, know that no 16 ranked schools have ever beaten a no 1 ranked club.
Here is the detailed balance sheet since 1985:
No 1 is 132-0 once morest No 16 (100%)
No 2 is 124–8 once morest No 15 (94%)
No 3 is 111-21 once morest No 14 (84%)
No 4 is 106–26 once morest No 13 (80%)
No 5 is 85-47 once morest No 12 (64%)
No 6 is 83–49 once morest No 11 (63%)
No 7 is 81-51 once morest No 10 (61%)
No 8 is 67–65 once morest No 9 (51%)
In general, one or two clubs ranked No. 13 or No. 14 manage to pass the first round. But in 2017, the logic had been surprisingly respected when the top-5 in each region had presented an efficiency of 95% (19 in 20). It was the No. 11 ranked teams that had the most fun at the start of the tournament last year. With that in mind, here are some “small” teams that will deserve my vote in a few days:
* No 11 Loyola-Chicago c. no 6 Miami, jeudi 15 h 10
* No 12 South Dakota State c. no 5 Ohio State, jeudi 16 h
* No. 14 Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 3 Texas Tech, Thursday 7:27 p.m. (a bit daring, but one guy is trying his hand…)
* No 12 New Mexico State c. no 5 Clemson, vendredi 22 h
Your first TV viewing block should be…
Thursday evening from 7 p.m., while the two games played one following the other in the city of Boise (state of Idaho) will be Davidson (no 12) once morest Kentucky (no 5), followed by Buffalo (no 13 ) once morest Arizona (No. 4). Nothing to help us decide between them, three of the four teams will wear the good old name of “Wildcats” for the occasion (all except Buffalo). If you don’t have time to take a look at these duels, know that my friends and colleagues Max Paulhus, Will Archambault and Max Boudreau can give you a full report. They would pay dearly for their alma mater respective (Davidson and Buffalo) caused the surprise and found themselves face to face in the next lap.
Is it realistic? More or less. But don’t think it’s in the bag early that the general public’s desired duel, Kentucky once morest Arizona, will take place on Saturday. Davidson benefits from a leading coach in Bob McKillop and will try to build on his superb end to the season. If a surprise is to develop, that’s the direction I would point. Nonetheless, Kentucky and Arizona are brimming with top talent and finished the season strong as well.
The No. 1 ranked team that is unlikely to make it to the Final Four is…
Xavier’s Musketeers. They are a good team, no doubt. But the three clubs that will be chasing them in the West portion, North Carolina, Michigan and Gonzaga, are all better than them in my opinion. The Tar Heels and Bulldogs clashed in the most recent Finals and still have many of the same players 12 months later. While the Wolverines are coming off the excellent Big Ten partnership with victories over Michigan State and Purdue in the end. Xavier really won’t have it easy.
The most fascinating part of the painting will be…
The Midwest. Why? Because universities Nos. 1, 2 and 3 can all aspire to take top honors in the 2018 tournament. Kansas, Duke and Michigan State. Three renowned coaches. Three pedigrees of fire. Three formations brimming with top-notch talent. On paper, the Jayhawks are less dangerous than their two rivals. But they have the most reliable and experienced playmaker of the lot in Devonte’ Graham.
The Blue Devils and the Spartans faced each other on November 14 in Chicago when they were ranked 1 and 2 in the country at the very start of the campaign. We had the right to a sparkling meeting won by Duke and it would be fantastic to relive the whole thing a second time at the Sweet Sixteen, 129 days later in Nebraska. If I had to favor a club to get out of this region, I would currently opt for Michigan State.
The two most intriguing individual cases are those of…
Trae Young and Michael Porter Jr. Mr. Young is an electric-skilled guard who plays for the Oklahoma Sooners and led the entire NCAA this season in points (27.4) and assists (8.8) per game. In his first year in the NCAA, there was little talk regarding him at the start of the season and now he is predicted a selection in the top-10 at the next amateur auction and a bright future with the pros. He is the closest reincarnation of Steph Curry since his time at Davidson a decade ago.
The two are not the most physically imposing, but manage to stand out by: their touch of the ball, their ability to draw in no time, their ease in shooting at any distance, their flair for the game, etc.
The problem with Young is that he and his team started the season as a lion before ending it as a frail little kitten. 14-2 record to start, 4-11 (!) record since then. They have barely qualified for the big dance and we wonder which team we will be entitled to on Thursday noon once morest Rhode Island. So will Trae Young, so will the Sooners, as the latter struggles with an overall percentage of 38% from the perimeter and 31% from the three-point line during the stampede of his people.
As for Porter, a member of the Missouri Tigers, the story is very different. Tipped as one of the best talents in the country at the start of the year, the 6-foot-10 winger only played two short minutes in the opener in November before seriously injuring his lower back. On March 8, to everyone’s surprise, he made a comeback in his team’s last game of the season. He looked rather slow and rusty, but his talent is still undeniable. If one more week of practice is enough to get him back on track, Missouri might turn into a suddenly annoying opponent.
The Canadian-born player who most deserves your attention is…
Definitely Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This rookie playmaker, originally from Hamilton, has excelled all season long in a Kentucky Wildcats uniform. He will most likely be selected in the first round of the next NBA Entry Draft. He’s 6-foot-6, has a solid outside shot and can attack the basket in a variety of ways for John Calipari’s team. He scored 10 or more points 24 times in 2017-18, despite being just 19 years old. He had 29 points and 7 rebounds in his most recent game, leading his team to the SEC Finals title once morest Tennessee.
In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander, 17 other Canadians will have the chance to set foot on the field during this edition of March Madness. Canada Basketball has compiled a nice detailed list that you can consult here.
The 10 future NBA stars you must try to see in action are…
* DeAndre Ayton (Arizona): the almost undisputed first choice of the next draft. He’s 7-foot-1, super athletic, and leads the competition averaging 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game this season. NBA comparison: David Robinson.
* Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter (Duke): Bagley is a big guy a little less refined away from the basket than Ayton, but just as athletic and dominant as his rival. Carter has equally high pro potential according to many observers, but can’t quite step out of his teammate’s shadow just yet. NBA comparisons: Chris Bosh and Al Horford
* Jaren Jackson Jr. and Miles Bridges (Michigan State): At 6’11”, Jackson has the more enticing pro potential of the two with his natural ability at both ends of the court. Bridges is a winger with exquisite fluidity around the perimeter, able to attack the basket too. NBA comparisons: Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Devin Booker.
* Mohamed Bamba (Texas): Essentially the most dominant player in the entire NCAA this season to protect the ring and block shots, at a rate of 4 per game. Smoother than most 7 foot tall players. NBA comparison: Rudy Gobert.
* Collin Sexton (Alabama): The Crimson Tide is betting heavily on this playmaker to make a good start in the tournament. Measuring only 6 feet 2, he still manages to change the course of matches with his explosive, physical and aggressive style. NBA executives all see it in their soup. NBA comparison: Eric Bledsoe
* Michael Porter (Jr), Trae Young (Oklahoma) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky): mentioned above
The team that will lift the trophy on April 2 in San Antonio will be…
The Virginia Cavaliers. I know, it’s not the boldest prediction considering their fiery season (31 wins and 2 losses) and their ranking as favorites in this tournament. But among the dozen schools legitimately aspiring to high honors, I believe that it is necessary to promote them for several reasons.
Their head coach Tony Bennett, not to be confused with the old singer, is one of the best in the country. His teams are always the most structured, prepared and disciplined, even if he never recruits from the crème de la crème of secondary schools.
The Cavs demonstrate ideal depth and do not rely exclusively on a single offensive tool like many other contenders. But the main reason for their success and the confidence I have in them is their defence. It’s by far the best in the country for a few years now, and it allows them to win any game at any time. If successful, it would be the first-ever national championship in their history.
With that, I wish you a March madness that lives up to your expectations!
