The official bailout is here?The price of pigs in the peak season is almost “cut in half” and the pressure from the game of supply and demand still exists|Industry dynamics
Financial Associated Press, January 14th (Reporter Wang Pingan and Zhang Chenjing)“The price of pigs in 2022 will be very strange. The price will rise rapidly in the off-season, but it will fall below the cost line in the peak season. After this ‘roller coaster’ ride, the pig farmers still don’t make much money.” A front-line person recently told the Financial Associated Press.
Recently, due to the demand for the Spring Festival and the stimulation of low-priced pork, the slaughter volume has increased significantly. At the same time, returning home during the Spring Festival has driven regional consumption, and the increase has been obvious in the north. Today, the National Development and Reform Commission recommends that slaughter companies appropriately increase commercial inventory and boost market demand. Reporters from the Financial Associated Press learned from multiple interviews that the slaughter volume is expected to peak next week, but most farmers have a strong willingness to slaughter, and the pace of slaughter is accelerating. The short-term pressure on pig prices still exists under the game of supply and demand.
The rapid decline in pig prices and the National Development and Reform Commission suggest that slaughter companies increase their inventory appropriately
Entering the peak season of live pig consumption, the price of pigs has rarely dropped. In the past three months, the price of pigs has almost been “cut in half”.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of three-yuan live pigs in the first ten days of January 2023 fell by 10.7% from the previous month. On January 9, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, from January 3 to January 6, the national average pig-grain price ratio was 5.93:1, entering the three-season warning period of excessive decline.
In response to the low price of live pigs, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized some large-scale pig slaughtering companies to hold a meeting to analyze the supply and demand and price situation of the live pig market in depth. On January 14, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a message, recommending that slaughtering companies increase commercial inventory appropriately, boost market demand, and promote the price of live pigs to rise back to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
However, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the slaughtering volume of slaughter enterprises has increased significantly. According to data from Yongyi Consulting, the average slaughtering volume of sample slaughtering enterprises this week was 240,749 heads per day, an increase of 25.63% from last week.
(Source: Yongyi Consulting) Zheng Lili, general manager of Yongyi Consulting, told a reporter from the Financial Associated Press: “After entering the middle of the twelfth lunar month, consumer demand has increased, and the mood for new year stocking has increased. Although the sharp fluctuations in the price of pig strips in the middle of the week have a certain impact on orders, However, the effect of the peak consumption season still exists, supporting slaughter companies to maintain high slaughter volumes.”
Zhang Long, the general manager of live pig futures delivery of Jiangsu Linfanke Industrial Co., Ltd., told the reporter of the Financial Associated Press that the increase in slaughterhouses is very obvious. A large slaughterhouse nearby has reached 6,000 pigs in the past two days, and regarding 2,000-3,000 pigs at the end of December. head left and right. Before 2022, there will be regarding 4,000 heads. And looking at today’s plan, we will continue to raise it, but there is no plan to enter the warehouse, and all of them are fresh products.
The pressure on pig prices still exists due to the booming supply and demand
It is worth noting that, due to the low pig prices and the arrival of returning home, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press found that township consumption has been significantly boosted. Recently, the reporter visited a farmer’s market in a town in western Henan. Years ago, there was an endless stream of consumers buying meat. Almost every butcher’s shop hung sausages with personal name tags hanging underneath them. The owner of the butcher shop is busy with pickling meat and stuffing dumplings.
(Photographed by a reporter from the Financial Association in front of a resident butcher’s shop) “It’s the Spring Festival that sells meat. This year, the epidemic policy has been relaxed. It is estimated that more people will return. The sausages hanging have names. Let me hang them here to dry. They have already paid for it. Now sausages can only be bought and filled with meat, and there is no stock.” The owner of a butcher shop told a reporter from the Financial Associated Press.
Some residents said: “The price of meat this year is not bad. I bought almost 400 yuan of pork. I bought it two weeks ago, and I bought it too early. If I buy it now, I can save 1 yuan per catty.”
(Sausages hung at the butcher shop, dumpling stuffing, etc.) In addition, the 2023 Spring Festival travel has already begun. A few days ago, a reporter from the Financial Associated Press randomly interviewed several passengers in the waiting hall of Zhengzhou Railway Station. With the arrival of the wave of returning home, it is time to stock up for the new year and the Spring Festival, or to support the continued increase in slaughter.
Zheng Lili further stated that the increase in the north is currently showing a strong trend and the increase is obvious, while the demand in the south is declining due to the returnees, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in slaughter. Looking at next week, entering the last working period before the Spring Festival, the slaughtering volume will also usher in a wave of peaks, and the increase is expected to be still relatively obvious. However, with the coming of the Spring Festival, the time left for supply and slaughter is becoming more and more limited, and the game between supply and demand will still put pressure on pig prices.
According to previous statistics from the Shanghai Steel Federation, slaughtering companies will gradually stop working from the 28th of the twelfth lunar month, and the number of holidays will range from 2 to 11 days. Due to the continuous excess of pigs in the market, the completion of group farm plans is slow, and retail investors are actively selling pigs. It is expected that the market will be adequately supplied before the Spring Festival. Many people in the industry believe that “fat pigs celebrate the New Year” is a foregone conclusion, and the supply of fat pigs is too high. According to the past practice, the slaughter volume will decrease by 60% following the year, and the price trend of pigs is weak.
(Editor Liu Yan)
