Pension reform: it will be 64 years old with an increase in the contribution period

It will be 64 years with a faster increase than expected in the contribution period: such is the arbitration of Emmanuel Macron a few days before the official announcement of the pension reform by Elisabeth Borne, on January 10. What the Prime Minister is going to make public is fixed, barring the ultimate surprise, a hypothesis that should not be ruled out, especially with a head of state who adjusts his decisions until the last minute.

In recent days, two hypotheses have been put forward : either a decline in age to 65, the commitment to the presidential campaign; i.e. a decline to 64, combined with an acceleration of the reform of Marisol Touraine (Minister of Social Affairs and Health at the time) of 2014. Elisabeth Borne is in favor of this second option. According to our information, she will be retained. It was expected.

Those born in the second half of 1961 (the reform will not be passed before) will be the first to innovate the new rules with an age of 62 years and three months; those of 1962 will only be able to receive their pension at 62 years and six months, and so on.

The novelty is above all due to the choice of the rate of decline in age. Again, the choice of the Prime Minister is validated. It will be three months per generation and not four as advanced by Emmanuel Macron in his program. During the presidential election, Valérie Pécresse, candidate LR, proposed to go up to 65 years old at the rate of five months a year. Eric Zemmour, at age 64 for three months. Joke of history: macronism falls on the same figures as the candidate of Reconquest!.

Generation 1968. Concretely, the natives of the second half of 1961 (the reform will not be voted before) will be the first to innovate the new rules with an age of 62 years and three months; those of 1962 will only be able to receive their pension at 62 years and six months, and so on. Those from 1963 at 62 years and nine months. Those from 1964 to 63 years old. And so on until reaching the age of 64 in 2030 for those born in 1968: with the current rules, they might have stopped working at age 62, i.e. in 2030, the law will require them to play extensions until 2032, the year of their 64th birthday.

The choice of a combination between a less harsh age limit and an extension of the accelerated contribution period is also in line with the reform desired by the LRs of the Senate

The choice to push back the legal age at the rate of three months per generation is very political. Elisabeth Borne wants to seduce the right which is favorable to such a rhythm. But in doing so, Emmanuel Macronfinds itself at odds with its recent declarations. On October 26, during the broadcast the event of France 2, the Head of State affirmed: “There is no working hypothesis where we can stop at 63 on the horizon of this five-year term. » With the reform, as it is emerging today, this bar will be barely exceeded in 2027: the legal age will then be 63 years and three months whereas it would have reached 64 years with a rate of progression of four months.

Combination. The choice of a combination between a less harsh age limit and an extension of the accelerated contribution period is also in line with the reform desired by the LRs of the Senate. The Touraine law increases this duration by one quarter every three years to reach 43 years in 2035 for people born in 1973. This barrier of 43 years remains. Elisabeth Borne confirmed it on Franceinfo on January 3. “We will not go beyond the 43 years of contribution. “But this quota should be reached more quickly: the duration of contribution will increase by one quarter per year and reach 43 years for those born in 1965, therefore eight years earlier than in the Touraine scheme.

The question is what reception the LRs – who are having their back-to-school meeting at the National Assembly on January 10 – will reserve for this device. A subject is particularly close to their hearts and it is currently being discussed with the government: the treatment reserved for small pensions. The government plans to raise the level of the minimum pension for a full career to more than 1,200 euros and to set a rule: this amount must not be less than 85% of the minimum wage. But this increase would only apply to new retirees, Elisabeth Borne said on January 3 on Franceinfo. The LRs want the measure to be extended to current pensioners, which is both technically complicated and financially costly: between 200 and 500 million euros (depending on the profile of the measure) in the first case, triple in the second . LR or not, it is hard to see the government resisting this extension when debate in Parliament.