Kim Jong-un’s daughter recently appeared in public for the first time. Will she be the next leader of North Korea? It would be highly unusual in the highly patriarchal country.
North Korean state media has not revealed much regarding the angel-faced girl who made several public appearances with Kim Jong-un, the country’s leader, in recent weeks. On New Year’s Day, they published undated photos of her and Kim visiting a nuclear missile facility. The girl’s name and age were not disclosed, only being referred to as Kim’s “beloved daughter”.
That was enough to raise questions regarding the girl’s place in the Kim family’s dynastic line. Rumors immediately arose that she is being groomed as Kim’s successor.
North Korea is not a monarchy. The Supreme Leader is supposedly elected by a Congress of the Workers’ Party. In reality, the Kims have been running the country as a private family business since its inception at the end of World War II.
Both Kim’s grandfather and his father reigned until their deaths. Kim Jong-un, who turns 39 on Sunday, has been in power for 11 years and is unlikely to go away any time soon. Still, the question of who will inherit the regime – and its burgeoning nuclear arsenal – remains the subject of endless fascination among officials and analysts, especially as doubts have been raised regarding Kim’s health.
Weapon trials
Speculation regarding North Korea’s succession plans unfolded as Seoul and Washington said this week they are discussing how to better counter North Korea’s growing nuclear threat, using the full range of US defense assets.
The recent guesswork over succession began following North Korea launched its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, one of the country’s most significant weapons tests, on Nov. 18. The next day, North Korean state media reported that Kim had watched the launch with his daughter and photos had been released of the girl in a white quilted jacket holding Kim’s hand as they walked around the test site.
Days later, South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency identified the young girl as Kim Ju-ae, the baby retired basketball star Dennis Rodman said he was allowed to hold when he met Kim in Pyongyang, North Korea, in 2013.
Ju-ae’s public appearance was the first time Pyongyang has confirmed that Kim has a child. Until her debut in the state media, ordinary North Koreans had never seen a child of Kim’s. According to South Korean intelligence officials, Kim has three children, the eldest of which is likely a son. Ju-ae is his second child, probably nine or ten years old.
According to outside analysts, she is described as “beloved” and has been chosen to represent the next generation of the Kim family. They are also intrigued by Kim’s decision to introduce her to the general public at a missile testing ground, highlighting the link between the Kim family and the North’s weapons program.
Formal clothing
Succession speculation intensified when Ju-ae rejoined her father, this time in late November for a group photo with rocket technicians. She was dressed more formally for the occasion, in a long black coat with a fur collar. Her hand was on her father’s shoulder as he sat before the crowd of cheering engineers. Top generals bowed to her.
“The photos are likely part of a carefully crafted program to show the North Koreans that Kim Ju-ae will be the successor,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a longtime Kim family researcher at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. -Korea.
If Kim chooses a daughter over a son as heir to the throne, it would be highly unusual in the highly patriarchal North Korea. But Kim herself was an unlikely choice to become the country’s leader. The youngest of three sons, Kim leapfrogged his brothers when his father, Kim Jong-il, recognized his domineering attitude and chose him as his successor, analysts said.
While the leadership of the North is predominantly male, Kim Jong-un’s regime also includes a few prominent women, such as outspoken journalist Ri Chun-hee, Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, and Kim’s sister and spokeswoman Kim Yo-jong , who has issued a flurry of warmongering threats once morest South Korea in recent months.
By revealing a possible successor early, Kim Jong-un may be trying to avoid his father’s mistakes, some analysts believe. Kim Jong-il named Kim Jong-un his heir when the son was a child, but he kept the secret from his inner circle. Many analysts had speculated that Kim Jong-nam (the elder Kim’s eldest son and Kim Jong-un’s half-brother) would become his successor. Others said the father would choose Kim Jong-chol, Kim Jong-un’s older brother. Some even said that the hereditary succession in North Korea would end with the death of Kim Jong-il.
It was only following the father suffered a stroke in 2008 that North Korea hinted that Kim Jong-un was the chosen successor. Ordinary North Koreans had never seen him until he appeared in state media in 2010.
When his father died in 2011, there was much doubt at home and abroad regarding Kim’s ability to lead. It took years for him to establish his unquestioned authority through a series of bloody purges, including the execution of his own uncle and the murder of his half-brother.
After coming to power, Kim made his government and his family less closed to the outside world. His father was known to live with beautiful women, including Kim’s mother, but never introduced them to the public. One of the first things Kim did as leader was a public appearance with his wife, Ri Sol-ju.
By revealing a successor early, Kim “gives the successor enough time to prepare,” Cheong says. “He wants his successor to avoid the rushed, rapid succession at home and the skepticism from outside that he has had to go through.”
Most analysts agree: by taking one of his children to events related to his arsenal, Kim reminds the people of the North, especially the youth, that his family’s dynastic rule and the development of nuclear weapons the next generation will continue.
Idolatry
Not everyone sees Ju-ae’s presence as a sign that she has moved up in the family. “It is premature to conclude that she will be the successor, especially if her father has a son,” said Ahn Chan-il, a defector from North Korea who heads a research institute in Seoul.
Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat who fled to South Korea in 2016 and is now a legislator in Seoul, tells reporters the world won’t know Kim has chosen a successor until the North selects a particular child as a divine figure comes to idolize, as they did with Kim when his succession was formally established.
Kim promotes and fires top officials like pieces on a chessboard and regularly reshuffles his government. Last week, Pak Jong-chon, a top military official, was replaced. These maneuvers have left observers guessing, but such speculation is banned in the North’s heavily censored news media.
“North Koreans take the hereditary rule of the Kim family for granted because they have never experienced free elections,” says Ahn. “They are less interested in who rules them and more in who will make their lives better than Kim Jong-un did.”
© The New York Times
