Photo credit: Yonhap News
An analysis from the United States suggests that if North Korean leader Kim Jong-un dies suddenly, his younger brother, Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the Workers’ Party of Korea, is likely to become the successor.
This is because Kim Jong-un’s children are young and the North Korean system is solid, so there is little possibility of a sudden change internally in the event of Chairman Kim’s death.
“Even if something happens to Kim Jong-un, I don’t think there will be chaos and system collapse,” said Sumi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Department, at a webinar on leadership in North Korea held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, on the 5th (local time). “In that case, there is a high possibility that power will be transferred to Kim Yeo-jung,” he predicted.
“Kim Yeo-jung is the younger brother and second-in-command who has exercised real power since at least 2014,” he said.
“It will take 2030 for Kim Jong-un’s first child to become an adult,” he added.
He also pointed out that the issue of succession is a variable in the North Korean system, saying, “If the North Korean system becomes unstable, it is most likely to be triggered by a failure in power succession, not by a coup or popular uprising.”
◆ CSIS ‘North Korea Leadership’ Webinar… ‘North Korea’s Kim Jong-un Regime Announcement’
Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, said of Kim Ju-ae, the second daughter who often accompanies Chairman Kim’s foreign activities recently, “In order for Kim Ju-ae to reach out and press the nuclear button, he will need a phone book to support his feet.” It won’t be number one in succession,” he said.
“There are no opposition groups or opposition leaders in North Korea.
Even if Kim Jong-un dies suddenly, the succession can take place in an orderly manner.”
“Kim Yo-jong may be number one here, and even if Kim Jong-un dies, there will be no sign of policy change,” he said.
He emphasized that “Kim Jong-un might die at any time, but until then, Kim Jong-un is the opponent we have to deal with,” referring to the fact that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was not aware of Kim Il-sung’s death before North Korea was announced. .
◆ “Can’t rule out the possibility of daughter Kim Ju-ae’s successor”
John Delary, a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University, mentioned that under the Kim Jong-un regime, the role of first lady Ri Sol-ju was highlighted, and that following the appointment of Choi Sun-hee as foreign minister, Kim Joo-ae also appeared.
In this regard, he said, “In the North Korean political culture dominated by patriarchal men, women can be less threatening to Kim Jong-un,” he said, “because there are limits to where women can rise in North Korea.”
He said of Kim Ju-ae, “I do not rule out the possibility that she is at least a contender for succession, if she proves that she is the most capable child, just as Kim Jong-un was evaluated not as the eldest son but as the most capable son and became the successor.”
He also said that it is possible to infer that Chairman Kim brought Kim Joo-ae out logically because ▲ Contrary to reports, Kim Jong-un does not have a son, ▲ Kim Jong-un aims to protect his son, or ▲ Kim Ju-ae is better than his son.
◆ “Purge, one of the methods of Kim Jong-un’s rule…disproves the establishment of the regime”
Regarding the reports of Ri Yong-ho’s execution, experts agreed that purges are one of Kim Jong-un’s methods of governance and that the Kim Jong-un regime is solid.
Researcher Klingner said, “North Koreans have been purged and then reappear, and they reappear even following reports that they have been executed. This shows that Kim Jong-un’s power is solid in North Korea.”
“The removal of North Korean officials might be dissatisfaction with some policy or other reasons we don’t see,” he said.
◆ Victor Cha “Kim Jong-un had difficulty walking during the 2018 North-South summit visit to Mt. Baekdu”
Meanwhile, Victor Cha, CSIS deputy director for Asia and Korea chair, said, “I’ve never met Kim Jong-un, but some US officials have met him.”
“For example, during the inter-Korean summit in 2018, President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un went to Mt. Baekdu, and Kim Jong-un said that he suffered as if it was difficult to walk when going to and from the bus,” he said. said.
