No official of the American central bank (Fed) anticipates a cut in its key rate in 2023, in the face of much more persistent inflation than expected, according to the minutes of their last meeting, published on Wednesday.
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“None of the participants anticipates that it is appropriate to start cutting the policy rate in 2023,” reads the minutes of the December 13-14 meeting.
On the other hand, they expect “continuous increases” in rates, believing that they will no doubt be “appropriate to achieve the objectives”, that is to say bring inflation back to around 2%.
Their rhythm will have to be determined according to the evolution of consumer prices, because the actions taken by the Fed, which has been raising rates since March, take time to make their full effects felt, it is specified.
“Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy should be maintained until the data indicate that inflation is on a persistent downward path at 2%, which should take some time”, further details this account. rendered.
Some Fed officials had also invoked the fact that “historical experience warns once morest premature easing of monetary policy”.
Economic forecasts released by the Fed following the meeting showed that Fed officials now plan to hike the key rate above 5.00%, when they saw it peak at 4.6%. in the previous forecasts, published in September.
Rates had, at the mid-December meeting, been raised by half a point, which brought them to the range of 4.25 to 4.50%, their highest level since 2007.
This sharp increase, however, marked a slowdown compared to previous meetings, during which the committee had resorted to increases of three-quarters of a point, a first since 1994.
This slowdown should make it possible “to better assess the progress of the economy towards the objectives” of the Fed, at a time when “monetary policy is approaching a position sufficiently restrictive to achieve these objectives”, underline the minutes once more.
Monetary institution officials, however, insisted that this does not mean the Fed is less determined to get inflation back on track. Nor that the committee considers that inflation is already slowing down for a long time.
“The minutes show that the Fed will reduce inflation at the risk of harming the labor market and the economy in general”, analyzes Ryan Sweet, economist for Oxford Economics, in a note.
Because this voluntary slowdown in economic activity to cope with inflation might plunge the US economy into recession.
The economist anticipates a rate hike of only a quarter point at the next Fed meeting, on January 31 and February 1.
Inflation fell in November to 5.5% over one year once morest 6.1% in October, according to the PCE index, favored by the Fed.
Another measure, the CPI index, which refers to and on which pensions are indexed, also showed a sharp slowdown in November, to 7.1% over one year, once morest 7.7% in October.
