The new Republican majority in the House of Representatives has not yet found a majority to appoint a new chairman. What is going on?
Republican Kevin McCarthy seemed likely to succeed Democrat Nancy Pelosi as speaker. Why did he fail?
“McCarthy is opposed by part of the ultra-conservative faction within the Republican majority: the Freedom Caucus. They believe that he does not listen enough to their hard-right demands. First 19 and later even 20 of their 44 members of Congress voted once morest McCarthy in three ballots on Tuesday, failing to get the required majority of 218 votes. That is exceptional. It has been since 1923 that a candidate speaker received insufficient support from within his group. Then nine rounds of voting were needed.”
What’s happening today?
“One or more new rounds of voting will take place today. Hard negotiating took place behind the scenes last night between McCarthy and the Freedom Caucus. For example, McCarthy would partially accommodate the Freedom Caucus’ demand to lower the threshold for ordinary members of Congress to move a vote of no confidence once morest the Speaker of the House if they wish, a privilege now reserved only for senior delegates. In this way they want to strengthen the grip of the grassroots on the political agenda. If an agreement is not reached with McCarthy, the vote might theoretically take a long time. In 1865, people voted 133 times for two months to elect a president.”
What is the Freedom Caucus?
“Traditionally, they have always been a thorn in the side of the Republican party with their hard-right advocacy, including for an extremely minimal state and ethically conservative themes. A number of their members hail from the Tea Party, which became notorious here when they blocked health care reform for a long time under President Obama (2008-’16).
“In recent years they have turned out to be fervent supporters of former President Donald Trump, but that time is over. They too are not a united bloc. The dissidents voted for their chairman, Jim Jordan, as the new speaker, but Jordan himself supports McCarthy for now. He even gave an impassioned nomination speech for McCarthy. If McCarthy throws in the towel, it cannot be ruled out that Jordan will go for the top prize himself.”
What is the position of Trump, who is still seen as the de facto leader of the Republicans?
Trump also supported McCarthy. Trump kept quiet on Tuesday evening and said he is now watching the cat out of the tree. That his initial support for McCarthy failed to unify the party is perhaps the most important lesson to remember from this episode. This chaos shows that Trump’s blessing is no longer law. He, too, wakes up today to the new reality that the last Midterm elections in November did weaken his authority as the de facto head of the party. Many of his congressional candidates failed and he has come under fire from law enforcement over the revelations of his pernicious role prior to the January 6, 2021 storming of Capitol Hill and his controversial tax returns.
“You also have to wonder who benefits from the torpedoing of McCarthy. It is notable that at least three Freedom Caucus delegates from Florida voted once morest him. This state is now firmly in the hands of Trump’s main opponent for the 2024 election, Governor Ron DeSantis. According to a poll by USA Today last month, this right-wing ideologue is rapidly gaining support among conservatives as the preferred candidate over Trump. The chaotic election of the House Speaker is, in my view, just the beginning of the internal power struggle within the Republicans due to a weakened Trump.”
The Democrats must be rubbing their hands now. Can they still weigh in on the election?
“At the moment, they watch from the stage with pity as the Republicans roll over the carpet fighting. Some of their delegates were even seen with popcorn. They voted with their minority for their faction leader, Hakeem Jeffries. But they too can weigh on the debates, especially if this takes too long. As early as Tuesday, you might see Democratic Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez talking to members of the Freedom Caucus to ask how things are going there. After all, the House cannot function without a chairman, which means that the political business is paralyzed.
“Should McCarthy not make it, it cannot be ruled out that some Democrats will want to offer an alternative majority to a moderate Republican center candidate, which might increase their influence on the political agenda. This line is now also used by McCarthy as a warning to convince the Freedom Caucus to support him following all.”
